光大期货碳酸锂日报（2025 年 9 月 19 日）-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 0.74% to 72,880 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 300 yuan/ton to 73,450 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose 300 yuan/ton to 71,200 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained at 74,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased 120 tons to 39,354 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased 400 tons to 20,363 tons. The output of lithium extraction from spodumene increased 160 tons to 12,869 tons, from lepidolite increased 130 tons to 2,860 tons, from salt lakes increased 90 tons to 2,745 tons, and from recycling increased 20 tons to 1,889 tons. On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials increased 158 tons to 166 tons, and the inventory decreased 16 tons to 17,454 tons; the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate increased 630 tons to 78,143 tons, and the inventory increased 775 tons to 96,217 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory decreased 981 tons to 137,531 tons, with downstream inventory increasing 1,216 tons to 59,495 tons, intermediate link inventory decreasing 440 tons to 43,580 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing 1,757 tons to 34,456 tons [3]. - Under the expectation of project复产, the long - position logic has been weakened. However, from the current fundamentals, inventory destocking has accelerated. Before the actual复产 of the projects, in the context of strong demand and pre - holiday stocking for the National Day, the downstream procurement demand will support the price. The price may fluctuate in the short term, and the actual situation of projects in Jiangxi needs to be continuously monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 72,880 yuan/ton, down 760 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 72,620 yuan/ton, down 880 yuan [5]. - Lithium Ore: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 858 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,105 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,815 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 6,025 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 7,125 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [5]. - Lithium and Lithium Salts: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 73,450 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 71,200 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 74,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 78,970 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 68,960 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 56,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [5]. - Price Spreads: The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was 550 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 7,536 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan [5]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials generally increased slightly, and the prices of lithium iron phosphate products also increased slightly, while the prices of some products such as manganese - acid lithium and cobalt - acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. - Lithium Batteries: The prices of most lithium battery products remained unchanged, with only a few showing slight increases [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: There are charts showing the price trends of spodumene concentrate, lepidolite, and amblygonite from 2024 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][10]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: There are charts showing the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][12][13][14][15][16]. - Price Spreads: There are charts showing the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant spreads from 2024 to 2025 [18][19]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: There are charts showing the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese - acid lithium, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [25][26][28][29][30][31][32]. - Lithium Battery Prices: There are charts showing the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [33][34][35][36]. - Inventory: There are charts showing the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from February 2025 to September 2025 [38][39][40][41]. - Production Costs: There is a chart showing the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [42][43]. 3.3 Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous and new energy research and have won many awards and recognition [46][47].