Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral; BR is also rated neutral [6] Core View of the Report - The Fed's rate cut is in line with expectations, leading to an adjustment in commodities and relatively weak rubber prices this week. In the next one to two weeks, domestic rainfall is expected to decrease, but overseas production areas, mainly Thailand, are still affected by rainfall. It is expected that overseas raw material prices will remain firm, and the cost - side support for rubber may still be strong. The domestic arrival volume has slightly recovered, but the recent concentrated purchasing by downstream has led to a continuous decline in Qingdao port inventory in the past week. After the end of maintenance, the downstream tire operating rate has rebounded again, and the overall downstream demand shows a pattern of seasonal improvement. However, after the downstream restocking is completed, it is expected that there will still be pressure for the domestic port inventory to rise. For BR, there are concerns about cost - side drag recently, mainly due to the weakening of crude oil prices, which may lead to an adjustment in butadiene prices. At the same time, the butadiene inventory has gradually increased recently, and there may be pressure after the downstream restocking is completed. The fundamentals of BR itself still show a good pattern, and there are maintenance plans for several BR production facilities, which are expected to lead to a phased decline in supply. The downstream tire demand is in a peak season, with increased purchasing by tire factories, and the operating rate has rebounded after the end of maintenance. The large price difference with natural rubber also supports the BR price [6] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,570 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,300 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 11,415 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,750 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,740 US dollars/ton, down 40 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Import: In August 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 664,000 tons, an increase of 7.8% compared with 616,000 tons in the same period of 2024. From January to August, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 5.373 million tons, an increase of 19% compared with 4.514 million tons in the same period of 2024. - Export: According to QinRex data, in the first eight months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume totaled 1.05 million tons, an increase of 14.4% compared with 920,000 tons in the same period of 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year but decreased by 8.9% month - on - month. - Heavy - truck sales: In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 84,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a slight decrease of 1% month - on - month and an increase of about 35% compared with 62,500 units in the same period of the previous year. From January to August this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 708,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 13%. - Automobile production and sales: From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales of new vehicles. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports were 4.292 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [2][3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 18, 2025, the RU basis was - 820 yuan/ton (- 40), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 820 yuan/ton (- 60), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,576 yuan/ton (- 140.37), the NR basis was 709.00 yuan/ton (+ 91.00); the price of whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (- 350), the price of mixed rubber was 14,750 yuan/ton (- 250), the price of 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (- 100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,830 US dollars/ton (- 30), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 400 yuan/ton (- 200); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,650 yuan/ton (- 50). - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.43), the price of Thai rubber latex was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.10), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.05 Thai baht/kg (- 0.60), and the spread between Thai rubber latex and cup lump was 5.25 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.70). - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.36% (+ 0.05%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.74% (+ 0.13%). - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,235,510 tons (- 22,205.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 586,639 tons (- 5,636), the RU futures inventory was 151,740 tons (- 10,490), and the NR futures inventory was 45,964 tons (- 605) [4][5] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 18, 2025, the BR basis was 35 yuan/ton (+ 75), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,250 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (- 200), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton (- 100), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,400 yuan/ton (- 150), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,710 yuan/ton (- 100). - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 69.72% (- 3.76%). - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 7,820 tons (- 390), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,900 tons (- 400) [5] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. For BR, also maintain a neutral view [6]
化工日报：半钢胎开工率环比回落-20250919
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-19 05:20