黑色建材日报：降息预期兑现，钢材维持累库-20250919

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The expectation of interest rate cuts has been realized, and steel inventories continue to accumulate. The glass and soda ash markets show factory inventory destocking and significant downward movement in the futures market. The double - silicon market features firm spot prices and strong alloy performance [1][3]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Strategy for Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Analysis: Yesterday, glass futures fluctuated downward. Downstream procurement was cautious, mainly for immediate needs. With the recent price increase, glass production and sales improved month - on - month. This week, the operating rate of float glass enterprises was 76.01%, unchanged from the previous period, and factory inventory was 60.908 million heavy boxes, a 1.1% month - on - month decrease. There is still a supply - demand contradiction in the glass market, and the short - term premium in the futures market suppresses price increases [1]. - Strategy: The price trend is expected to be oscillating and weakening [2]. Soda Ash - Market Analysis: Yesterday, soda ash futures also fluctuated downward. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid restocking. This week, the operating rate was 85.53%, a 2.02% month - on - month decrease, production was 745,700 tons, a 2.02% month - on - month decrease, and inventory was 1.7556 million tons, a 2.33% month - on - month decrease. The supply - demand imbalance will continue with new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter, and the current premium in the futures market further suppresses price increases [1]. - Strategy: The price trend is expected to be oscillating and weakening [2]. Group 4: Market Analysis and Strategy for Double - Silicon (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Manganese Silicon - Market Analysis: Yesterday, manganese silicon showed an oscillating and strengthening trend. The manganese ore market maintained a price - supporting sentiment. The final price of the mainstream steel tender was 6,000 yuan/ton, with the price in the northern market at 5,680 - 5,730 yuan/ton and in the southern market at 5,700 - 5,750 yuan/ton. Production and sales slightly increased, but enterprise inventory rose due to continuous production growth. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern tends to be loose [3]. - Strategy: The price is expected to oscillate [4]. Ferrosilicon - Market Analysis: Yesterday, ferrosilicon futures continued to oscillate and strengthen. The market sentiment was average, with the price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas at 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton and 75 - grade ferrosilicon at 6,000 - 6,050 yuan/ton. Production and sales were differentiated, and factory inventory reached a high level, suppressing prices. The industry has an obvious supply surplus, and profits are constrained without industrial policies [3]. - Strategy: The price is expected to oscillate [4].