宝城期货资讯早班车-20250919

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.4% in the previous quarter but up from 4.7% in the same period last year [1] - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up from 49.3% in the previous month and 49.1% in the same period last year; the non-manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, up from 50.1% in the previous month and the same as last year [1] - Social financing in August 2025 was 2566.8 billion yuan, compared to 1130.7 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - In August 2025, M0, M1, and M2 year-on-year growth rates were 11.7%, 6.0%, and 8.8% respectively; new RMB loans were 590 billion yuan, compared to -50 billion yuan in the previous month and 900 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - In August 2025, CPI was -0.4% year-on-year, down from 0.0% in the previous month and 0.6% in the same period last year; PPI was -2.9% year-on-year, up from -3.6% in the previous month but down from -1.8% in the same period last year [1] - As of August 2025, cumulative fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) growth was 0.5% year-on-year, down from 1.6% in the previous month and 3.4% in the same period last year; cumulative growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.64% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in the previous month but up from 3.4% in the same period last year [1] - In August 2025, export and import values were 4.4% and 1.3% year-on-year respectively, down from 7.2% and 4.1% in the previous month [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - On the 18th, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority cut the base rate to 4.5% due to the US Fed's 25 - basis - point cut in the federal funds rate target range [2] - The US initial jobless claims last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years, but continuing claims remained above 1.9 million, indicating labor market pressure [3] 2.2 Metals - Most London base metals fell. The market faces a critical supply - demand game, with potential production cuts in recycled metals due to tight scrap supply, but the traditional peak season may improve the situation [4] - After the Fed's rate cut, international gold prices dropped from above $3700/ounce to around $3650/ounce, and the Shanghai gold futures contract 2510 also declined [4] - Copper prices reached new highs but then adjusted. Short - term prices may fluctuate in a range, while long - term prices are affected by mine - end factors and have upward potential [5] - On September 17th, aluminum inventory reached a 6 - month high, while lead, copper, and zinc inventories hit multi - month lows [6] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The China Iron and Steel Association held a meeting to analyze the iron ore market and plan for the upcoming import iron ore port spot price index [7] - The US government plans to set up a $5 - billion mineral investment fund through a joint venture, which would be its first direct involvement in large - scale mineral trading [7] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - China - led international standards for oil and gas pipelines were released, unifying 287 terms [9] - On September 18th, international oil prices fell slightly due to concerns about distillate inventories, economic prospects after the Fed's rate cut, and increased oil reserves in Colombia [9] - The EU is formulating measures to phase out Russian gas, including a potential ban on all Russian gas imports [9] 2.5 Agricultural Products - China launched an anti - dumping investigation on EU pork products at the request of domestic industries [11][14] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On September 18th, the central bank conducted 487 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 195 billion yuan [13] - The central bank will issue 60 billion yuan of 6 - month RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong on September 22nd [13] 3.2 Key News - The total issuance scale of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 reached 1.148 trillion yuan, with an 88.3% progress rate [15] - The "Top 500 Chinese Service Enterprises in 2025" were released, with a total revenue of 51.1 trillion yuan in 2024 and an average revenue of 102.22 billion yuan [15] - Vanke adjusted its organizational structure to a flatter "headquarters - city" model [15] - Some bonds of Country Garden and Tengyue Construction will be suspended for trading to negotiate new repayment plans [16] - In July, non - US investors increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds, with Japan and the UK increasing while China and Canada decreased [16] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - After a continuous recovery, the bond market adjusted slightly, with yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds rising and Treasury bond futures closing down [19] - In the exchange bond market, some bonds rose while others fell, and the Wande real - estate bond 30 index and high - yield urban investment bond index rose slightly [19] - The CSI convertible bond index and Wande convertible bond equal - weight index fell, with some bonds having significant gains or losses [20] - Most money market rates, Shibor short - term rates, and inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate bonds rose [20][21][22] - European and US bond yields generally increased [23] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1079, down 23 points from the previous day, and the central parity rate was 7.1085, down 72 points [24] - The US dollar index rose 0.34%, and most non - US currencies fell [24] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - CICC expects the Fed to cut rates again in October, but inflation may limit further easing [25] - CITIC Securities believes that the market's expectation of the central bank resuming Treasury bond purchases supports interest rates, and overseas bonds, especially Canadian dollar bonds, may be attractive [26] - Huatai Fixed Income notes that banks are more likely to sell old bonds with floating - profit OCI, and the bond market's institutional ecosystem is being reshaped [27] - Yangtze River Fixed Income thinks that the bond market had a recovery after economic data release in September, and the fundamentals' influence on bond pricing is increasing [27] - Hongze Fixed Income predicts a style switch in the bond market in September, with interest rates outperforming credit [27] 4. Stock Market News - A - share indices rose in the morning and then dived in the afternoon, with most stocks falling. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.06%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.64% [30] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.35%, with cyclical stocks down and semiconductor and robot sectors up [30]