Report Overview - The report provides investment analysis and market insights for coking coal and coke futures on September 19, 2025 [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Coking coal and coke futures are expected to oscillate in the short - and medium - term, with an intraday bias towards a slightly stronger oscillation [1][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - For coking coal (JM2601), the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are all "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation, slightly stronger". The core logic is that there is insufficient upward driving force, and the futures will oscillate [1]. - For coke (J2601), the short - term, medium - term, and reference views are all "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation, slightly stronger". The core logic is the game between bulls and bears, leading to high - level oscillation [1]. 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic Coking Coal (JM) - Spot Market: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1140.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat [5]. - Supply - Demand Situation: After the September 3rd parade, coking coal production gradually recovered but remained at a low level. Mongolian coal imports returned to the annual high, and there is no obvious contradiction on the supply side. On the demand side, there is no significant change from the previous period. In the context of the sluggish real estate and infrastructure, the building materials demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" season shows the characteristic of "no peak season" [5]. - Market Outlook: Coking coal is in a stalemate between bulls and bears. The upward momentum depends on the "anti - involution" drive. In the short term, the main contract is expected to maintain range - bound oscillation. Follow - up attention should be paid to whether there are relevant measures in the coal industry [5]. Coke (J) - Spot Market: The latest quotation of the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.29%. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1480 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 6.47% [6]. - Futures Market: Recently, there are again disturbances related to "anti - involution", but the real - world fundamentals have not improved significantly. The market is in a stalemate between bulls and bears, and the J2601 contract maintains range - bound oscillation. Under the background of the domestic "anti - involution" rectification, coke futures are expected to be more likely to rise than to fall. Follow - up attention should be paid to whether there are specific measures for "anti - involution" in the coal industry [6].
宝城期货煤焦早报（2025年9月19日）-20250919
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-09-19 05:24