光大期货软商品日报（2025 年9月19日）-20250919

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to experience a slightly weak and volatile pattern in the short term, with limited downside space and the need for stronger drivers to break through previous support. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and the opening price of new cotton [2]. - Sugar is expected to continue its weak performance in the short term due to concerns about increased production and high supply [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Research Views - Cotton: On Thursday, ICE cotton fell 0.49% to 66.92 cents per pound, and CF601 dropped 1.08% to 13,765 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest increased by 10,790 lots to 502,100 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,890 yuan per ton, down 120 yuan from the previous day. Internationally, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, but there were differences in the dot - plot's prediction of the future interest - rate cut path. The US dollar index strengthened, causing the price of US cotton to decline. Domestically, the market focuses on market sentiment and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton. This year's new cotton is expected to have a good harvest, with the expected opening price of machine - picked cotton at 6.2 - 6.3 yuan per kilogram and the processing cost around 14,000 yuan per ton. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales slowed down, but the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles increased by 3.1%. The operating load of downstream textile enterprises has improved seasonally, providing some support to the demand side [2]. - Sugar: In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 62,700 tons year - on - year. From January to August 2025, China imported 2.6121 million tons of sugar, an increase of 121,000 tons or 4.86% year - on - year. As of August in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, China imported 4.0739 million tons of sugar, a decrease of 277,200 tons or 6.37% year - on - year. Spot prices have been lowered. After the release of Brazil's sugar production and sales data in August, concerns in the market subsided, and the certainty of increased production became stronger, putting pressure on futures prices. In China, the combination of multiple sugar supplies and high imports has weighed on market sentiment, causing prices to fall below previous lows [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 40 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract basis was 1,554 yuan, up 134 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 15,249 yuan per ton, up 23 yuan, and the national average was 15,319 yuan per ton, up 9 yuan [3]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 24 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract basis was 451 yuan, up 45 yuan. The spot price in Nanning was 5,840 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan, and in Liuzhou was 5,925 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [3]. Market Information - On September 18, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 177 to 4,438, with 12 valid forecasts [4]. - On September 18, the arrival prices of cotton in different regions were: 15,249 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,309 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,344 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,429 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On September 18, the comprehensive load of yarn was 50.1, up 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.3, down 0.1; the comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth was 52.8, unchanged; and the comprehensive inventory of short - fiber cloth was 29.2, down 0.2 [4]. - On September 18, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,840 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan, and in Liuzhou was 5,925 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [4]. - On September 18, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 359 to 10,629, with 0 valid forecasts [5]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are presented, including those showing the closing prices, basis, 1 - 5 spreads, and warehouse receipts of cotton and sugar futures, with data spanning from 2021 - 2025 [7][15][18]. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won multiple awards [20]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass. She has also won several awards [21]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys. He won the title of senior analyst in textile products at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2024 [22].