Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 1.24% at 2,798 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.07% at 3,410 yuan/ton [1] - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, the crude oil market showed little reaction, and oil prices remained range-bound. Short-term geopolitical uncertainties provided limited guidance on fuel oil prices [1] - High-sulfur fuel oil is in the market rebalancing phase. Near-term supply is relatively abundant with high inventory, but the pressure has eased. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 4.2% week-on-week to 25.41 million barrels, the second consecutive week of decline but still significantly higher than the same period in previous years [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the local supply pressure increased due to increased exports from Nigeria's Dangote refinery, but the volume of arbitrage cargoes from the West decreased, domestic production remained at a medium-low level, and domestic refineries showed no significant tendency to increase production after the third batch of quotas was issued. The cracking spread is expected to be supported at the bottom and restricted at the top [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 1.24% at 2,798 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.07% at 3,410 yuan/ton [1] - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, the crude oil market showed little reaction, and oil prices remained range-bound. Short-term geopolitical uncertainties provided limited guidance on fuel oil prices [1] - High-sulfur fuel oil is in the market rebalancing phase. Near-term supply is relatively abundant with high inventory, but the pressure has eased. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 4.2% week-on-week to 25.41 million barrels, the second consecutive week of decline but still significantly higher than the same period in previous years [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the local supply pressure increased due to increased exports from Nigeria's Dangote refinery, but the volume of arbitrage cargoes from the West decreased, domestic production remained at a medium-low level, and domestic refineries showed no significant tendency to increase production after the third batch of quotas was issued. The cracking spread is expected to be supported at the bottom and restricted at the top [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Charts - The report includes 18 charts showing various fuel oil prices, spreads, and trading volumes, with data sources from Flush, Steel Union, and Huatai Futures Research Institute [3][11][22]
燃料油日报：新加坡燃料油库存回落-20250919
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-19 05:25