Group 1: Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Steel: The rebar futures market showed a narrow - range oscillation. With the decline in rebar production, the inventory turned from rising to falling, and the apparent demand rebounded. However, after the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market's expectation of further policy easing weakened, affecting the rebar sentiment. It is expected to continue narrow - range oscillation in the short term [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures market also had a narrow - range oscillation. The supply increased, while the demand was affected by factors such as the change in the number of blast furnace overhauls and production resumptions. The inventory situation was mixed. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures market had a wide - range oscillation. The supply was tight, and the downstream coking enterprises had different procurement attitudes. It is expected to continue wide - range oscillation in the short term [1]. - Coke: The coke futures market had a wide - range oscillation. The raw material price rebounded, and the profit of coking enterprises shrank. The demand was supported by high hot - metal production, but the terminal demand was weak. It is expected to continue wide - range oscillation [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures market showed an oscillatory trend. The supply was at a high level, and the demand was limited. The market sentiment was boosted by news, but the sustainability was not strong. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures market also showed an oscillatory trend. The production was at a relatively high level, and the demand was not strong. The market sentiment was disturbed, and the fundamentals had limited driving force. It is expected to continue oscillating [3]. Group 3: Summary by Section Research Views - Steel: The closing price of rebar 2601 contract was 3147 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (0.66%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. The spot price dropped slightly, and the trading volume declined. The production, inventory, and apparent demand data had certain changes. The Fed's interest - rate cut affected the market sentiment [1]. - Iron Ore: The closing price of the main iron ore futures contract i2601 was 800 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton (0.56%), with a decrease in positions. The port spot prices of some varieties fell. The supply increased, and the demand was affected by blast furnace operations. The inventory situation was complex [1]. - Coking Coal: The closing price of coking coal 2601 contract was 1203.5 yuan/ton, down 29.5 yuan/ton (2.39%), with a decrease in positions. The supply was tight due to mine accidents, and the downstream procurement was different [1]. - Coke: The closing price of coke 2601 contract was 1709 yuan/ton, down 25.5 yuan/ton (1.47%), with a decrease in positions. The spot price in the port market rose. The raw material price rebounded, and the profit of coking enterprises shrank [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The main contract of manganese silicon closed at 5970 yuan/ton, up 0.24%, with an increase in positions. The market price was stable. The supply was high, and the demand was limited. There were news about eliminating backward production capacity, and the steel - tender price was still under negotiation [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The main contract of ferrosilicon closed at 5756 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, with an increase in positions. The market price was basically stable. The production was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory decreased slightly but was still at a high level [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads and Basis: Data on contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months) and basis for various commodities (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) were provided, along with the latest values and their changes compared to the previous period [4]. - Profit and Price Spreads: Information on the profit (such as rebar's盘面利润, long - process profit, short - process profit) and price spreads (such as卷螺差,螺矿比, etc.) of different commodities was presented, including the latest values and their changes [4]. Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: Charts showed the closing prices of the main contracts of various black commodities (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][10][11][15]. - Main Contract Basis: Charts presented the basis of the main contracts of various commodities over different time periods [17][18][19][20][23][24][25][26]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: Charts showed the spreads of different inter - period contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for various commodities [28][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][42]. - Inter - commodity Contract Spreads: Charts presented the spreads between different commodities (such as主力合约卷螺差,主力合约螺矿比, etc.) [44][45][46][48]. - Rebar Profit: Charts showed the profit of rebar (盘面利润, long - process profit, short - process profit) over different time periods [49][50][52][53].
黑色商品日报（2025 年 9 月 19 日）-20250919
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-09-19 05:39