FICC日报：降息促美股债双涨，关注日本央行利率决议-20250919

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Domestic policy expectations are rising to counter external pressures, and incremental policies are expected to follow, with potential fiscal expansion [2]. - The US inflation outlook is clearer, and the Fed's rate cut supports the rise of US stocks and bonds, but the US market still faces recession risks [3]. - In the commodity market, different sectors have different investment opportunities, and it is recommended to allocate commodities and stock index futures by going long on industrial products and precious metals at low prices [4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic: In August, external pressures increased, with weakened exports to the US but resilient non - US exports. The government has proposed policies for stable growth. The August economic data showed "slow industry, weak investment, and dull consumption", and the A - share market declined on September 18, while the bond market and commodity market also showed a downward trend [2]. - US: In August, the ISM manufacturing index contracted, CPI increased, PPI slowed, employment data was weak, and retail sales exceeded expectations. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the UK central bank maintained the interest rate and slowed down quantitative tightening [3]. Commodity Analysis - Black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to the domestic supply - side; precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is dragged by downstream demand, the non - ferrous sector has limited long - term supply, the energy supply is expected to be loose, and some chemical products have "anti - involution" space. Precious metals are suitable for multi - allocation, and agricultural products need to wait for fundamental signals [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products and precious metals at low prices [5]. To - do News - On September 18, the Ministry of Commerce held a press conference. The Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as Tiktok. On the same day, the A - share market had a volatile decline, with tourism stocks rising and gold, brokerage, and financial technology stocks falling [6].