有色商品日报（2025 年 9 月 19 日）-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. After the Fed's rate cut, the Bank of England maintained its interest rate, and central banks were cautious about further rate cuts. LME copper inventory decreased by 900 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2144 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 822 tons, and BC copper decreased by 2229 tons. Downstream demand was weak due to high prices and macro uncertainties. Considering policy expectations and the peak demand season, copper prices may be viewed as relatively strong, as a decline could prompt downstream restocking [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina fluctuated weakly, with AO2601 closing at 2932 yuan/ton, a 0.54% decline. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with AL2510 closing at 20800 yuan/ton, a 0.02% increase. Aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. Alumina's short - term decline space is limited as it approaches the cost line, and aluminum ingots showed narrow de - stocking, adding to the peak - season expectations. With the cancellation of tax rebates, scrap aluminum prices are supported, and aluminum alloy is expected to continue to be strong [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.71% and Shanghai nickel fell 0.63%. LME nickel inventory decreased by 18 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 275 tons. Nickel ore prices were stable, stainless - steel inventory decreased, but supply increased. In the new - energy sector, demand weakened slightly in September, and MHP supply was tight. Due to previous supply disruptions in Indonesia and price increases in nickel - iron and MHP, nickel prices may face correction pressure, and overseas macro conditions need to be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Macro factors led to increased market volatility, and downstream demand was weak. Considering policy and demand, copper prices may remain strong [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina prices were near the cost line, and aluminum ingot de - stocking supported the market. Aluminum alloy followed the upward trend of aluminum [1][2]. - Nickel: After a rapid price increase, nickel prices may correct, and attention should be paid to overseas macro factors [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On September 18, 2025, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 620 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. LME inventory decreased by 900 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 822 tons. The active - contract import loss was 89.9 yuan/ton, a significant change from the previous day [3]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead increased by 50 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 2675 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 9843 tons [3]. - Aluminum: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased by 110 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 30125 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 4421 tons. The active - contract import loss was 1541 yuan/ton [4]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 100 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 18 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 275 tons. The active - contract import loss was 1381 yuan/ton [4]. - Zinc: The主力结算 price decreased by 0.9%. LME inventory decreased by 150 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons. The active - contract import loss was 0 yuan/ton [6]. - Tin: The主力结算 price decreased by 1.0%. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased by 124 tons. The active - contract import loss was 0 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][10][11][12]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16][18][19][20]. - LME Inventory: Charts illustrate the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][22][23][24][25][26]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][29][30][31][32][33]. - Social Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][35][36][37][38][39]. - Smelting Profit: Charts display the historical trends of copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum - smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc - smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [40][41][42][43][44][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A master of science, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, and an intermediate gold investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity - research experience and has won multiple industry awards [47]. - Wang Heng: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research [47]. - Zhu Xi: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel research [48].