八月出口80万吨，港口库存去化

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic spot market of urea sees manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders. After the prices in Shandong and Henan dropped to 1,580 yuan/ton, the transaction improved. After manufacturers raised the quotes, the transaction was average. - Domestic demand is weak, with urea factory inventories continuing to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the start time of demand in Northeast China. - Urea production remains at a high level. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose. - The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average. - The export side still has a significant impact on the sentiment of urea prices. In September, it is still the export window period, and urea exports are continuing with an accelerating pace, leading to a decline in port inventories. The export volume in August was 800,000 tons, and the export volume in September is still expected. Attention should be paid to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the month - on - month improvement of domestic demand [2] Summary of Each Section Market Analysis - Price and Basis: On September 18, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,670 yuan/ton (- 11). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,650 yuan/ton (0); in Shandong, it was 1,640 yuan/ton (- 10); in Jiangsu, it was 1,650 yuan/ton (+ 0). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis in Shandong was - 30 yuan/ton (+ 1); in Henan, it was - 20 yuan/ton (+ 1); in Jiangsu, it was - 20 yuan/ton (+ 11). The urea production profit was 110 yuan/ton (- 10), and the export profit was 1,158 yuan/ton (- 5) [1] - Supply Side: As of September 18, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.21% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.1653 million tons (+ 32,600 tons), and the port sample inventory was 516,000 tons (- 33,400 tons) [1] - Demand Side: As of September 18, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 38.63% (+ 0.81%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 56.78% (+ 1.40%); the number of pre - received order days of urea enterprises was 6.18 days (- 0.70) [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; - Inter - variety: None [3] Sections in the Table of Contents - Urea Basis Structure: It includes figures such as the market price of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main contracts, the price of the urea main continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [5][1][6] - Urea Production: It includes figures of urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume [5][23] - Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate: It includes figures of production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [5][27][35] - Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit: It includes figures of FOB prices of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, CFR prices of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, FOB and CFR prices of small - and large - particle urea in China, and urea export profit and disk export profit [5][34][44] - Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders: It includes figures of compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and the number of days of orders to be delivered [5][51][52] - Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: It includes figures of upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main contract positions, and main contract trading volume [5][55][58]