集运日报：现货运价维持低位，美重启降息步伐，盘面低位震荡，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot freight rates remain low, the US has restarted the interest - rate cut, and the market is fluctuating at a low level. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1440.24 points, down 8.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1349.84 points, up 37.7% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 903.32 points, down 11.71% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 729.42 points, down 14.78% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route on September 12 was 1216.14 points, down 9.13% from the previous period [1]. - On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1398.11 points, down 46.33 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1154 USD/TEU, down 12.24% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2370 USD/FEU, up 8.27% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1537.28 points, down 6.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 757.45 points, down 2.2% from the previous period [1]. PMI Data - In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [2]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the preliminary value of the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than 50.9 in July, improving for three consecutive months and reaching the highest level since May 2024, higher than the expected value of 50.7. The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index in August was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [1]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7). The preliminary value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, the highest level since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [2]. Tariff and Market Situation - The Sino - US tariff issue has been postponed, and there is no substantial progress in the negotiation. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The current spot price has slightly decreased, and the tariff issue has a marginal effect [3]. - On September 18, the main contract 2510 closed at 1105.9, down 2.08%, with a trading volume of 1.96 million lots and an open interest of 4.72 million lots, a decrease of 2436 lots from the previous day [3]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contract is strong. Risk - preferring investors are recommended to try going long lightly around 1200 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, and do not hold losing positions. Set stop - losses [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [3]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend [3]. Other Information - Israel's Ministry of Defense announced on September 17 that it had completed the development of the "Iron Beam" laser air - defense system, which can intercept rockets, mortars, and drones at a "low cost" and is expected to be delivered by the end of this year [4]. - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 18, restarting the interest - rate cut since December last year [4].