养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean - related products: Uncertainties in US soybean biodiesel policies and potential Sino - US soybean trade negotiations have led to price fluctuations. Domestic soybean products face supply - side pressures, with prices expected to be weak in the short - term [3][5][8]. - Rapeseed - related products: Temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may reduce imports, but alternative sources can partially compensate. If imports from Canada significantly decrease, domestic rapeseed oil and meal may experience inventory reduction [3][4][6]. - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil is in a seasonal inventory - building period, but production growth is expected to slow. Indonesian biodiesel policies may support prices, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [4]. - Corn and corn starch: Externally, factors like Fed rate - cut expectations and US corn exports support prices, but northern hemisphere corn harvests and inventory - building expectations limit upside. Domestically, the market is in a tug - of - war, with prices expected to remain low in the short - term [7]. - Peanuts: New - season peanuts are expected to have a bumper harvest, and falling production costs put pressure on prices. However, Mid - Autumn Festival stocking provides some support, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Livestock products: Pig prices are weak due to over - supply and low feed prices. Egg prices are also under pressure from supply, but consumption during the peak season may provide some support [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Outlook | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.1 11 | New domestic soybeans are gradually coming onto the market, and US soybean policies face obstacles. Supply is expected to increase. | 3800 - 3830 | 3950 - 4000 | Sideways to bearish | Hold short positions [8][13] | | | Soybean No.2 11 | Uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations. | 3600 - 3630 | 3770 - 3800 | Bearish | Light - short positions [5][13] | | | Peanut 11 | New - season bumper harvest, cost reduction, and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking support. | 7500 - 7600 | 8020 - 8162 | Sideways adjustment | Wait and see [9][13] | | Oils | Soybean oil 01 | Weak fundamentals and continued inventory - building. | 8200 - 8230 | 8450 - 8500 | Bearish | Wait and see [3][13] | | | Rapeseed oil 01 | Expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports and potential inventory reduction. | 9500 - 9600 | 10300 - 10333 | Sideways to bullish | Light - long positions [3][4][13] | | | Palm oil 01 | Poor production performance in Malaysia and potential weakening of exports. | 9200 - 9208 | 9700 - 9736 | Sideways to bullish | Light - long positions [4][13] | | Proteins | Soybean meal 01 | Obstacles in US biodiesel promotion and uncertainties in Sino - US trade. | 2900 - 2950 | 3030 - 3050 | Bearish | Light - short positions [5][13] | | | Rapeseed meal 01 | Expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports and poor cost - performance. | 2365 - 2400 | 2572 - 2584 | Sideways to bearish | Wait and see [6][13] | | Energy and By - products | Corn 11 | Bearish fundamentals. | 2100 - 2120 | 2240 - 2250 | Under pressure | Hold short positions cautiously [7][13] | | | Starch 11 | Corn price decline and relatively loose supply. | 2400 - 2420 | 2580 - 2590 | Under pressure | Hold short positions cautiously [7][13] | | Livestock | Pig 11 | Feed price rebound and strong capacity - reduction expectations. | 12800 - 13000 | 13000 - 13800 | Searching for a bottom | Switch to wait - and - see [10][13] | | | Egg 11 | Capacity pressure and peak - season consumption expectations. | 2900 - 3100 | 3300 - 3350 | Searching for a bottom | Buy on dips [10][13] | 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - Inter - delivery arbitrage: For most varieties, the recommended strategy is to wait and see, except for soybean meal 3 - 5 (positive spread), pig 1 - 3 (buy near - term and sell far - term on dips), and egg 10 - 1 (buy near - term and sell far - term on dips) [14][15]. - Inter - commodity arbitrage: For some oil and protein products, different strategies such as bearish, bullish, and waiting - and - seeing are recommended [15]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - Basis data for various commodities such as soybeans, oils, proteins, energy products, and livestock are provided, showing price changes and basis fluctuations [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Tables 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - Daily data: Import cost data for soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates are presented, including CNF prices, landed duty - paid prices, and break - even soybean meal costs [18][19]. - Weekly data: Inventory and operating rate data for soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts are provided, reflecting supply - side changes [20][21]. 3.2.2 Feed - Daily data: Import cost data for corn from Argentina and Brazil are given [21]. - Weekly data: Data on corn consumption, inventory, and starch enterprise operating rates and inventory are presented [22]. 3.2.3 Livestock - Daily data: Data on live pig prices, piglet prices, pork wholesale prices, and related ratios are provided, showing the current state of the pig market [23]. - Weekly data: Key data for eggs and live pigs, including supply, demand, profit, and related prices, are presented [25][26][27]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Livestock (pigs and eggs): Charts show the closing prices of pig and egg futures contracts, as well as spot prices and related data, helping to analyze market trends [29][32][33]. - Oils and oilseeds: Charts display data on Malaysian palm oil production, exports, inventory, and related basis and spreads, as well as data on soybean oil and peanut - related indicators [41][52][56]. - Feed: Charts present data on corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal, including prices, inventory, consumption, and spreads [60][64][77]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils Charts show the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as corn option trading volume, open interest, and related ratios [94][95]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils Charts show the warehouse receipt data for rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [99][100][101].