黑色建材日报：降息预期兑现，钢材持续累库-20250919

Group 1: Steel Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - After the Fed's interest rate cut met expectations, the market returned to fundamental trading. Attention should be paid to supply - demand changes and industry profit conditions. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has slightly improved, while that of plates has weakened, and prices may face pressure [1]. Summary by Related Directory - Market Analysis: Yesterday, steel futures fluctuated weakly. Spot steel transactions were generally weak, with a significant decline compared to the previous period. Rebar spot prices held firm, and the basis widened. Hot - rolled coil prices generally followed the decline of the futures. The national building materials transaction volume was 87,900 tons. This week, rebar production decreased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand increased. Hot - rolled coil production slightly increased, inventory grew, and apparent demand declined [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Currently, rebar supply has contracted, and demand has recovered from a low level, with a slight improvement in the supply - demand pattern. However, the downstream has not improved, and the peak season remains to be verified. Plate demand has weakened, and the fundamental supply - demand pattern has deteriorated, with prices likely to be under pressure [1]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile. There are no recommendations for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Group 2: Iron Ore Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The global shipment of iron ore has significantly increased, pig iron production has continued to rise, and inventory has slightly declined, remaining at a medium level. Considering the pre - holiday restocking demand, iron ore consumption has strong resilience [3]. Summary by Related Directory - Market Analysis: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices fluctuated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports slightly declined. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills mainly purchased on a just - in - time basis. The national main port iron ore cumulative trading volume was 974,000 tons, a 23.00% decline from the previous day. Forward spot cumulative trading volume was 2.08 million tons (12 transactions), a 115.54% increase from the previous day (with a mine trading volume of 410,000 tons) [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The global shipment of iron ore has significantly increased, pig iron production has continued to rise, and inventory has slightly declined, remaining at a medium level. Considering the pre - holiday restocking demand, iron ore consumption has strong resilience. Attention should be paid to the impact of the floating volume on arrivals and the pre - holiday restocking rhythm of steel mills [3]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile. There are no recommendations for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Before the National Day, downstream restocking led to a significant increase in coking coal and coke inventory. It is expected that coking coal and coke will fluctuate in the short term [5][6]. Summary by Related Directory - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. For coke, coke enterprises' production was stable at a high level, and the supply side had no obvious inventory pressure. For coking coal, as the double festivals approached, downstream enterprises began pre - holiday restocking, and coal prices rebounded by 20 - 80 yuan/ton. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal in the spot market dropped to 1,000 yuan/ton. Coking coal and coke inventory increased compared to the previous period, indicating strong downstream restocking willingness. Coking coal production growth slowed down, and coke production slightly increased [5][6]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: For coke, price cuts have been implemented, and supply is relatively stable, while downstream rigid demand remains resilient. For coking coal, pre - holiday restocking demand has been released, and coking coal inventory has continued to decline. Coupled with domestic policy expectations, coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile in unilateral trading. There are no recommendations for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6]. Group 4: Thermal Coal Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Coal demand is improving, and prices are rising. In the short term, prices will fluctuate, and in the long term, the supply - loose pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. Summary by Related Directory - Market Analysis: In the production areas, the prices of main - producing areas continued to rise. Currently, the stocking demand for chemical and civil use is good, terminal demand has increased, and combined with the increase in the external purchase price of large groups, the transportation demand of surrounding coal yards and stations has been released. Some coal mines have low inventory, and the number of coal - pulling trucks has increased, leading to continuous price increases. In the port market, the sentiment is good, and the transaction price center has moved up. Some traders are more reluctant to sell due to shipping cost support and tight resources, and the prices of some high - quality coal varieties have increased. In the import market, the tender price of imported coal continued to rise, the decline of domestic coal prices narrowed, low - calorie coal prices rebounded, and the price difference between domestic and foreign coal shrank [7]. - Demand and Logic: Production area supply is gradually recovering, and the daily consumption of thermal coal has decreased. In the short term, prices will fluctuate. In the long term, the supply - loose pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. - Strategy: Not provided