甲醇日报：港口累库速率放缓，内地下游开工仍待提升-20250919

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory accumulation pace at ports has slowed down. After the restart of the downstream MTO Xingxing, the port demand has rebounded, but the subsequent arrival pressure remains high, and the key variable is when the Iranian winter inspection plan will be announced [2]. - The lowest point of coal - based methanol production start - up in the inland has passed, but it will not return to a high level until the second half of the month. The inventory of inland methanol factories remains low, and the overall situation is that the inland is stronger than the ports. The window for port - to - inland methanol flow is an important variable supporting the lower limit of port prices [3]. - Among traditional downstream industries, the high inventory pressure of acetic acid has dragged down its production start - up, the export of MTBE has improved, driving its start - up rate to rise from a low level, and the formaldehyde start - up rate has remained stable. Overall, the start - up rates of acetic acid and MTBE are still low [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Inland: The price of Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 415 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 785 yuan/ton (- 25). Inner Mongolia's north - line methanol price is 2090 yuan/ton (- 25), and the basis is 344 yuan/ton (+ 5); Inner Mongolia's south - line is 2140 yuan/ton (unchanged). Shandong Linyi is 2355 yuan/ton (- 35), Henan is 2200 yuan/ton (- 20), and Hebei is 2310 yuan/ton (unchanged). The inventory of inland factories is 340,480 tons (- 2080), and the inventory of northwest factories is 225,500 tons (+ 4200). The pending orders of inland factories are 233,776 tons (- 16,947), and those of northwest factories are 115,700 tons (- 20,900) [1]. - Ports: The price of methanol in Taicang is 2247 yuan/ton (- 35), the basis is - 99 yuan/ton (- 5), CFR China is 264 US dollars/ton (- 1), and the import price difference in East China is - 19 yuan/ton (+ 2). The total port inventory is 1,557,770 tons (+ 7440), with Jiangsu at 787,000 tons (- 17,000), Zhejiang at 286,900 tons (+ 1400), and Guangdong at 303,000 tons (+ 29,000). The downstream MTO start - up rate is 83.81% (+ 2.24%) [2]. - Regional Price Differences: The price differences between different regions have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest is 10 yuan/ton (+ 25), and the price difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia is - 393 yuan/ton (- 10) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Ports: The inventory accumulation rhythm has slowed down. The restart of MTO Xingxing has supported the recovery of port demand, but the subsequent arrival pressure is still large, and the key lies in the Iranian winter inspection plan [2]. - Inland: The lowest point of coal - based methanol start - up has passed, but it will not reach a high level until later. The inland factory inventory is low, and the inland is stronger than the ports. The port - to - inland flow window is important for port prices. Traditional downstream industries have different start - up situations, with acetic acid and MTBE start - up rates still low [3]. 3.3 Strategy - Single - side: No strategy is provided [4]. - Inter - period: Go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 when it is low [4]. - Inter - variety: Shorten the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].