氯碱日报：烧碱库存继续累积，关注液氯变动-20250919

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is fluctuating with the macro - environment. Supply is still abundant due to new production, demand shows some improvement but export expectations in Q4 are weak, inventory is high, and there is room to compress profits. The futures price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [3] - The spot price of caustic soda is falling. Chlor - alkali enterprise operating rates are slightly down. Demand support is loosening, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support still exists, and the profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3] Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4923 yuan/ton (- 50), the East China basis is - 173 yuan/ton (+ 20), and the South China basis is - 103 yuan/ton (+ 20) [1] - Spot price: East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4750 yuan/ton (- 30), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4820 yuan/ton (- 30) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 640 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price is 2840 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit is 38 yuan/ton (+ 0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 502 yuan/ton (- 81), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 672 yuan/ton (- 1), and the PVC export profit is - 8.0 dollars/ton (+ 4.1) [1] - Inventory and operating rate: PVC factory inventory is 31.0 tons (- 0.6), PVC social inventory is 53.2 tons (- 0.1), the PVC calcium carbide - based operating rate is 76.91% (- 3.38%), the PVC ethylene - based operating rate is 72.00% (- 5.20%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 75.43% (- 3.96%) [1] - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 68.9 tons (+ 1.8) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2580 yuan/ton (- 28), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 80 yuan/ton (- 35) [1] - Spot price: 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 800 yuan/ton (- 20), and 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 1270 yuan/ton (- 30) [2] - Upstream production profit: The profit of a single caustic soda variety in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (- 63), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 685.8 yuan/ton (- 22.5), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 259.78 yuan/ton (- 72.50), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1437.25 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2] - Inventory and operating rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 37.83 tons (+ 2.15), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.18 tons (- 0.03), and the caustic soda operating rate is 81.90% (- 1.50%) [2] - Downstream operating rate: The operating rate of alumina is 85.21% (+ 0.83%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 65.76% (+ 0.00%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber is 89.52% (+ 1.75%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply: Some enterprises are under maintenance, but new production capacity is increasing, and supply remains abundant [3] - Demand: Downstream product operating rates are rising, and enterprises maintain rigid demand procurement. Export orders are increasing, but Q4 export expectations are weak due to Indian policies [3] - Inventory: Social inventory continues to accumulate, and the absolute inventory value is high [3] - Price: The futures price is under pressure from high - level hedging, and attention should be paid to the impact of anti - involution policies [3] Caustic Soda - Supply: The operating rate of chlor - alkali enterprises is slightly down, and production may decrease slightly. New production capacity in Tianjin Bohua has reached full production [3] - Demand: Alumina orders in Shandong are stable, but external orders have decreased. High - price sales are difficult, and there is a fear of high prices in non - aluminum sectors. The inventory in Shandong is accumulating, and the market price is falling [3] - Price: The spot price is falling, and cost support still exists. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm before the holidays and the production start - up rhythm of Guangxi alumina [3] Strategy PVC - Single - side trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4] - Inter - delivery spread trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4] - Inter - commodity trading: No strategy provided [4] Caustic Soda - Single - side trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] - Inter - delivery spread trading: Consider a long - short spread strategy for SH01 - 05 when the spread is low [5] - Inter - commodity trading: No strategy provided [5]