海外利率系列点评：降息后美债利率走势推演

Group 1 - The report analyzes the potential scenarios for U.S. Treasury yields following a 25 basis point rate cut, categorizing them into four scenarios: unexpected, normal digestion, fully anticipated, and less than expected [4][5] - In the "normal digestion" scenario, the 10-year Treasury yield typically experiences a stable period followed by a gradual increase of 7-10 basis points after one week, as market participants reassess long-term risk [5][6] - The report suggests that the current rate cut scenario is likely to replicate the "normal digestion" model, with the 10-year Treasury yield expected to remain around 4.06% in the short term [6][7] Group 2 - The September FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate, maintaining the Fed's independence and signaling a shift from restrictive to neutral policy [7][8] - Economic forecasts indicate an improvement in GDP growth rates for 2025 and 2026, with expected rates rising from 1.4% to 1.6% and from 1.6% to 1.8%, respectively [9][10] - Inflation expectations have been adjusted, with the PCE inflation forecast for 2026 raised from 2.4% to 2.6%, reflecting anticipated upward pressure on prices [9][10]