贵金属日评：美联储降息预期路径偏鹰使贵金属价格承压-20250919

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Fed's dot - plot in September shows 2 rate cuts by the end of 2025 and only 1 in 2026, while the market expects 5 rate cuts from Oct/Dec 2025 and Mar/Jun/Sep 2026, indicating the Fed's future rate - cut path is hawkish. Considering Trump's pressure, geopolitical risks like the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, precious metal prices may be weak first and then strong [1]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Market Data - Shanghai Gold: The closing price was 824.53 yuan/gram, down 5.72 yuan from the previous day and 5.81 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 49,462, and the holding volume was 207,592 [1]. - Shanghai Silver: The closing price was 9,811 yuan/ten - gram, down 65 yuan from the previous day and 223 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 457,876, and the holding volume was 395,854 [1]. - COMEX Gold: The closing price was 3,678.20 dollars/ounce, down 2.20 dollars from the previous day and 16.40 dollars from the previous week. The trading volume was 176,290, and the holding volume was 388,882 [1]. - COMEX Silver: The closing price was 42.10 dollars/ounce, up 0.11 dollars from the previous day and 0.45 dollars from the previous week. The trading volume was 17,105, and the holding volume was 131,335 [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest drop in nearly four years [1]. - Overseas investors' holdings of US Treasuries reached a new high in July. Japan's holdings hit a new high in over a year, the UK increased its holdings by over $40 billion for two consecutive months, China's holdings were at a 16 - year low, and Canada's holdings decreased by $57.1 billion [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall and then mainly layout long positions. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,750 - 3,840. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 840 - 850. For London silver, focus on the support level around 39 - 40 and the resistance level around 43 - 46. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 and the resistance level around 10,300 - 10,500 [1].