地缘扰动难抵供应压力，原油延续弱势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil price will fluctuate weakly, and there is still downward pressure in the medium - term. Geopolitical disturbances on the supply side provide pulse support for oil prices, but the recovery of Russian maritime exports and concerns about the release of OPEC+ idle capacity limit the upside. On the demand side, the seasonal destocking in the US is nearing an end, and weak refined oil cracking spreads suggest that compressed refinery margins may force a slowdown in crude oil procurement. Attention should be paid to the implementation of EU sanctions against Russia and the October production policy of OPEC+ [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes: On September 18, the SC crude oil main contract fell 1.51% to 489 yuan/barrel. WTI (63.31 US dollars/barrel) and Brent (67.52 US dollars/barrel) fell 0.52% and 0.57% respectively. The SC - Brent spread dropped from 2.36 US dollars/barrel to 1.67 US dollars/barrel (a 29.24% decline), and the SC - WTI spread narrowed from 6.63 US dollars/barrel to 5.88 US dollars/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread slightly narrowed by 0.06 US dollars/barrel to 4.21 US dollars/barrel [2]. - Position and Trading Volume: The energy and chemical warehouse receipts remained stable overall. Only the asphalt warehouse receipts decreased by 350 tons. The decline in the SC crude oil main contract and the cautious market sentiment indicated a decrease in the willingness of long - position holders [2]. 3.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - Supply Side: Geopolitical disturbances increase short - term supply risks. The attack on a Russian refinery by Ukraine and the US court's ruling on Venezuelan bonds may affect supply, but Russia's maritime oil product exports increased by 8.9% in August, and Qatar's price increase shows OPEC+ producers' willingness to support prices [3]. - Demand Side: The unexpected decline in US EIA commercial crude oil inventories supports demand, but the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut on real - economy demand needs further observation. Uncertainty about EU sanctions against Russia may suppress European refineries' procurement. In the refined oil market, asphalt warehouse receipt destocking shows infrastructure demand resilience, while high - level fuel oil warehouse receipts indicate limited recovery in shipping fuel demand [3]. - Inventory Side: The decline in US inventories eases the oversupply pressure, but the recovery of Russian oil exports and the potential for OPEC+ to increase production may weaken the sustainability of destocking. Global inventories are structurally differentiated, with OECD commercial crude oil inventories at a neutral level and Asian floating storage potentially increasing [3]. 3.3 Price Trend Judgment - Short - term, the oil price will fluctuate weakly, and in the medium - term, there is still downward pressure. Geopolitical disturbances on the supply side provide short - term support, but the recovery of Russian exports and concerns about OPEC+ idle capacity limit the upside. The end of seasonal destocking in the US and weak refined oil cracking spreads may lead to a slowdown in crude oil procurement [4]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Crude Oil: On September 18, most crude oil futures and spot prices declined. The spreads between different crude oil types also changed, with the SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads narrowing significantly. The US dollar index rose 0.35%, the S&P 500 rose 0.48%, and the DAX index rose 1.35%. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 2.19%, and the US refinery weekly operating rate decreased by 1.69% [6]. - Fuel Oil: Most fuel oil futures and spot prices declined on September 18. The Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased by 3.18%, while some US fuel oil inventories increased [7]. 3.5 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - Supply: On September 18, a US judge made an unfavorable ruling on Venezuela's state - owned oil company, Ukraine attacked a Russian refinery, and Russia's maritime oil product exports increased by 8.9% in August [8]. - Demand: US House Democrats urged the Trump administration to re - implement a plan to compensate airline passengers for flight delays [10]. - Inventory: On September 18, most energy and chemical warehouse receipts remained stable, except for a 350 - ton decrease in asphalt warehouse receipts [11]. - Market Information: As of 2:30 on September 19, the SC crude oil main contract fell 1.51%. Market sentiment was affected by EU sanctions against Russia, US inventory changes, and Fed policies. Qatar raised the price of Al - Shaheen crude oil for November [12]. 3.6 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices and spreads, US and global oil production, refinery operating rates, and inventory levels [13][15][17].