降息落地难改供需窘境，原油震荡格局或将延续

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current crude oil market has a slight edge for bearish factors. Concerns about oversupply and weak signs on the demand side are the main pressures suppressing oil prices. Although oil prices once broke through the previous low - level oscillation range supported by geopolitical factors and the volatility increased, there was a lack of follow - up momentum after the positive factors were realized. The development of geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East needs to be monitored. For fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, high - sulfur fuel oil supply tightened due to reduced shipments from major exporters, and its demand and inventory showed mixed trends; low - sulfur fuel oil supply tended to be loose due to increased exports from Nigeria [3][4][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - OPEC + continues the production increase plan. In October, OPEC + will increase production by 13.7 million barrels per day. Since the first quarter of 2025, the actual crude oil production increase of OPEC + has been about 1.5 million barrels per day, significantly lower than the announced target of 2.5 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia lowered its official selling price to Asian customers and asked buyers to increase提货量, and its production in August increased by 258,000 barrels per day to 9.71 million barrels per day. The attack on Russian energy facilities and new sanctions may bring short - term supply risk premiums [3][11]. - U.S. crude oil production remains at a high level [22]. Demand Side - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but this has been fully anticipated by the market. It is more of a preventive measure against potential economic risks, and it is difficult to quickly boost demand. After the interest rate cut, the U.S. dollar index rose instead of falling, weakening the attractiveness of dollar - denominated crude oil. The performance during the distillate oil stocking peak season was poor, leading to an inverse - seasonal increase in inventory. The operating rate of U.S. refineries decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 93.3% from the annual high, indicating the gradual start of traditional autumn inspections [4]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the power generation demand from the Middle East will seasonally decline, Saudi Arabia's imports will decrease, but Egypt's procurement will increase. In the industrial field, fuel oil demand is challenged by the extension of natural gas pipeline networks and the acceleration of power substitution, and there are concerns about the long - term demand outlook [7]. Inventory - As of September 12, EIA data showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels, and Cushing inventories decreased by 296,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.347 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 100,000 barrels, and distillate oil inventories increased by 4.046 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 1 million barrels [4][44]. - In the week of September 15, the total inventory of Fujeirah petroleum products plummeted by 18%, decreasing by 2.935 million barrels to 13.089 million barrels, hitting a record low. In the week of September 17, Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.118 million barrels to 25.41 million barrels, reaching a three - week low. In the week of September 11, ARA region's fuel oil inventory decreased by 3.5% to 1.04 million tons [7]. Global Crude Oil Balance Sheet - There has been unexpected inventory accumulation for two consecutive years, with a cumulative surplus of over 2.6 billion barrels of crude oil. From 2025 - 2026, non - OPEC production will increase from 67.5 to 70.3 million barrels per day (+4.1%), while OPEC production will only slightly increase by 0.7 million barrels per day. U.S. shale oil and Brazilian deep - sea oil are the main sources of incremental production. OECD demand has stagnated, and non - OECD demand has fluctuated sharply [59][63].