沥青震荡企稳

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The domestic asphalt futures 2511 contract is expected to maintain a stable and fluctuating trend, benefiting from the rebound of crude oil futures prices and the improvement of the domestic asphalt industry factors under the background of increasing supply and demand [2][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Crude Oil Impact on Asphalt - The trading logic of the crude oil futures market comes from three aspects: macro - factor drive, supply factors, and increased geopolitical premium in the oil market. After the game between the bearish expectation of increased supply and the enhanced geopolitical risk, the domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a stable and fluctuating trend, providing cost support for asphalt futures [3]. Domestic Asphalt Supply - Since September, the processing profit of domestic asphalt manufacturers has recovered, and the refinery production enthusiasm has increased. The capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt has rebounded, and the supply pressure has increased. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 92 domestic asphalt refineries was 36.4%, a week - on - week increase of 5.9%. The total domestic asphalt production last week was 60.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.9 tons [4]. Domestic Asphalt Demand and Inventory - Since September, the downstream consumption capacity has increased. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic sample modified asphalt enterprises was 18.5% at the beginning of September, a week - on - week increase of 2.6%. The asphalt social inventory rate has decreased slightly, showing signs of destocking. As of the week of September 11, 2025, the domestic asphalt sample factory inventory decreased by 24.6% year - on - year, and the sample social inventory decreased by 21.5% year - on - year [5].