尿素早评20250919：做多机会或逐步到来-20250919

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report recommends paying attention to the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract on dips. The current urea price has dropped to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and the urea valuation being cheap. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the future: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned devices; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports. Therefore, the space for further decline in the current urea price is relatively limited [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices (closing prices): UR01 decreased from 1681.00 yuan/ton to 1670.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.65%; UR05 decreased from 1734.00 yuan/ton to 1725.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52%; UR09 decreased from 1755.00 yuan/ton to 1745.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57% [1]. - Domestic spot prices (small - particle): Shandong decreased from 1650.00 yuan/ton to 1640.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61%; Shanxi decreased from 1530.00 yuan/ton to 1520.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.65%; Henan decreased from 1660.00 yuan/ton to 1650.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60%; Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spread - The direct difference between Shandong spot and UR decreased from - 84.00 yuan/ton to - 85.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.00 yuan/ton; the spread between 01 - 05 decreased from - 53.00 yuan/ton to - 55.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.00 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream cost: The anthracite price in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000.00 yuan/ton and 880.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2930.00 yuan/ton and 2520.00 yuan/ton respectively; the price of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5083.00 yuan/ton and 5200.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1681 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1681 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1662 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1670 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1671 yuan/ton. The 2601 position was 286,823 lots [1]. Long - Short Logic and Trading Strategy - Long - short logic: Urea is cost - effective, with low upstream profits. On the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned devices (20 - year - old devices account for about 20% and the comprehensive operating rate is close to 80%, with little idle capacity); on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, especially in September - October [1]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract on dips [1].