钢材：需求改善估值偏低，钢价存在修复空间

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for steel is improving and the valuation is low, so there is room for steel price repair. It is expected that the molten iron output will remain high this week, but as the weather gets cooler, steel demand may show some improvement next week, and steel may enter an inventory inflection point. With the arrival of the peak season, steel demand will continue to improve. Considering the inventory replenishment before the National Day, there is support for the black sector. If the downstream demand experiences an unexpected repair from late September to October, steel prices may rise further. Therefore, it is expected that steel prices will maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term [1][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - Supply: This week, the small - sample output of rebar was 2064500 tons (- 5480 tons), and that of hot - rolled coil was 3264900 tons (+ 1350 tons). The daily average molten iron output of 247 blast furnaces was 2410200 tons (+ 470 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 28.9% (- 5.8%). Recently, the price of scrap steel has risen, the cost of electric furnaces has increased, steel prices have fallen, the profits of short - process steel have declined, and electric furnaces have significantly reduced production. The profits of long - process steel have increased slightly after previous losses and are maintained near the break - even line, with molten iron output remaining above 2.4 million tons. The daily consumption of scrap steel is 530000 tons, and the overall production enthusiasm for steel has declined [4]. - Demand: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar was 2100300 tons (+ 119600 tons), and that for small - sample hot - rolled coil was 3218200 tons (- 43400 tons). Affected by the parade, construction sites around Tangshan stopped work, and downstream production lines such as galvanizing also stopped. The capital situation for rebar downstream workers has improved, resulting in a smaller decline in rebar apparent demand than that of hot - rolled coil. The overall demand performance is in line with the seasonality. This week, the transportation of steel mills was blocked, leading to a faster inventory accumulation in social warehouses. From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment decreased month - month, and the incremental investment in domestic projects was insufficient. In August, the decline in housing sales, land acquisition, new construction, and completion areas continued to expand, the overall demand for housing construction was weak, residents' willingness to buy houses was insufficient, and the real estate market continued to decline. In August, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, and the S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 50.5%. The manufacturing PMI has recovered, and the new orders, production, and export data have all improved month - month, but it is still below the boom - bust line. In August, China's automobile production increased by 12.95% year - on - year, and exports increased by 25.11% year - on - year, with both domestic and foreign demand maintaining positive growth. However, the domestic automobile industry is currently sacrificing price for volume, and the industry's profits continue to shrink, so the subsequent demand may decline. In September, the production plan for the three major white goods decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, entering the off - season of demand. The overseas inventory remains high, and the production plan has declined significantly. It is expected that the growth rate will further decline in October. In August, the preliminary value of the S&P Global manufacturing PMI in the United States reached 53.3, the highest in 39 months. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 263000, up from 237000 the previous week. In August, the preliminary value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, and the output sub - index rose to 52.3, indicating that the eurozone economy seems to be gradually regaining momentum [4]. - Inventory: For rebar, the factory inventory decreased by 15600 tons, the social inventory decreased by 20200 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 35800 tons. For hot - rolled coil, the factory inventory increased by 4200 tons, the social inventory increased by 42500 tons, and the total inventory increased by 46700 tons. For the five major steel products, the factory inventory decreased by 11400 tons, the social inventory increased by 62700 tons, and the total inventory increased by 51300 tons [4]. Outlook - It is expected that the molten iron output will remain high this week, but as the weather gets cooler, steel demand may show some improvement next week, and steel may enter an inventory inflection point. With the arrival of the peak season, steel demand will continue to improve. Considering the inventory replenishment before the National Day, there is support for the black sector. If the downstream demand experiences an unexpected repair from late September to October, steel prices may rise further. Therefore, it is expected that steel prices will maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to lightly test long positions in the RB01 contract [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to continue holding long - short spread positions and short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [9]. - Options: No specific options strategy is clearly provided in the text. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Spot Prices - On Friday, the aggregated rebar price in Shanghai was 3250 yuan (+ 30 yuan), and in Beijing it was 3170 yuan (- 10 yuan). The hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3410 yuan (+ 10 yuan), and the Hebei Steel hot - rolled coil price in Tianjin was 3320 yuan [13]. Basis and Spread Trends - The text provides the trends of the 01 rebar and hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai, as well as the 01 - 05 spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil, but no specific data analysis is provided [15]. Spread between Hot - Rolled Coil and Rebar - The text shows the trends of the 01 and 05 spreads between hot - rolled coil and rebar, but no specific data analysis is provided [17]. Arbitrage Situations - The text presents the trends of the 01 contract's disk profit for rebar and hot - rolled coil, as well as the ratios of the 01 rebar contract to the 01 iron ore and coke contracts, but no specific data analysis is provided [19]. Long - Process Steel Mill Profits - The text shows the trends of cash profits for East China and Tangshan rebar, as well as Tianjin and East China hot - rolled coil in long - process steel mills, but no specific data analysis is provided [21]. Short - Process Steel Mill Profits - The flat - rate electricity profit of East China electric furnaces was - 198.14 yuan (- 45.8 yuan), and the off - peak electricity profit was - 33 yuan (- 46 yuan) [27]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Domestic Macroeconomics - From January to August, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3261.11 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. Excluding real estate development investment, fixed - asset investment increased by 4.2%. In terms of different fields, infrastructure investment increased by 2.0% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 573.04 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%, and the sales volume was 5501.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%. In August, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year - on - year and remained flat month - month. The national producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and remained flat month - month [29]. - The Fed announced a 25 - basis - point cut in the benchmark interest rate on September 17, and the median Fed forecast shows another 50 - basis - point cut in 2025 [29]. Macroeconomic Data - In August, the new social financing was 2.57 trillion yuan, up from 1.13 trillion yuan in the previous month, with a year - on - year decrease of 15.35% but a month - month increase. The new RMB loans were 590 billion yuan, up from - 50 billion yuan in the previous month. Resident loans were 3.03 billion yuan, and enterprise loans were 590 trillion yuan (there may be an error in the text, presumably 590 billion yuan). New RMB loans are mainly composed of loans to enterprises and institutions, with enterprise loans accounting for the majority. Resident loans remain weak, and the real estate market is still sluggish. With the "anti - involution" campaign continuing, wage and investment continue to weaken, and enterprise financing demand continues to decline [38]. - From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment completion was + 0.5%, down from 1.6% in the previous period. The cumulative year - on - year investment in real estate development decreased by 12.9%, manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, infrastructure investment increased by 5.42%, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 2%. The growth rates of the three types of investment continued to decline month - month. Real estate remains a drag on domestic demand, there is still a shortage of new infrastructure investment projects, enterprise loans are low, and affected by the "anti - involution" campaign, industrial prosperity is insufficient, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment continues to shrink [38]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Supply - The daily average molten iron output of 247 blast furnaces was 2410200 tons (+ 470 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 28.9% (- 5.8%) [58]. - The small - sample output of rebar was 2064500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5480 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil was 3264900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1350 tons [63]. Demand - The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 2100300 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 17.8% in the lunar calendar), a week - on - week increase of 119600 tons. The small - sample apparent demand for hot - rolled coil was 3218200 tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.08% in the lunar calendar), a week - on - week decrease of 43400 tons [66]. - According to the survey by Centennial Construction, as of September 16, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.39%, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - real estate projects was 61.21%, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 percentage points, and that of real estate projects was 50.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 percentage points. This week, the capital availability rate of construction sites increased month - month, with the capital situation of non - real estate projects improving and that of real estate projects deteriorating [74]. - From January to August 2025, China's cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. In August, steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a decrease of 330000 tons from the previous month, a month - month decrease of 3.35%. Steel exports remained strong in August. High - frequency data in September shows that direct steel exports are still high, but recent export profits have shrunk. High - frequency data has declined, and attention should be paid to the subsequent export resilience and overseas tariff policies [77]. Inventory - The total rebar inventory decreased by 35800 tons, with the factory inventory decreasing by 15600 tons and the social inventory decreasing by 20200 tons. The total hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 46700 tons, with the factory inventory increasing by 4200 tons and the social inventory increasing by 42500 tons. The total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 51300 tons, with the factory inventory decreasing by 11400 tons and the social inventory increasing by 62700 tons [4].