供需平稳运行，成本支撑较强

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For ferrosilicon, supply is relatively stable, demand is limited by slow steel inventory reduction, and the cost side provides support. The slow progress of steel inventory reduction is the biggest risk point [5]. - For silicomanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom this week [5]. - The trading strategies include a bottom - oscillating trend for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling straddle combinations on rallies for options [5]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Ferrosilicon: Supply is stable with a slight increase in production. The rumor of supply contraction was refuted. Demand is affected by poor steel inventory reduction and low profits, and there is limited room for further growth in hot metal production. The cost side is supported by strong thermal coal prices and stable - to - strong electricity prices in ferroalloy production areas [5]. - Silicomanganese: Supply decreases slightly, but the absolute production volume is still high compared to the same period in previous years. Demand is dragged down by the continuous compression of steel profits and the decline in steel production. The cost side is supported by the relatively low manganese ore port inventory compared to last year and stable overseas mine quotes [5]. Strategies - Single - side: Bottom - oscillating [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. - Options: Sell straddle combinations on rallies [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis No relevant content provided. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - Demand: The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 2.4102 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0047 million tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types is 19,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons, and for silicomanganese is 121,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 900 tons [10]. - Supply: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 36.84%, unchanged from the previous week, and the weekly supply is 113,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises is 45.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7%, and the weekly supply is 208,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,400 tons [11]. - Inventory: As of the week of September 19, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 63,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,600 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises is 198,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 32,100 tons [12]. Cost and Profit - Silicomanganese: The production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, and Guizhou are 5,788 yuan/ton, 5,901 yuan/ton, 6,363 yuan/ton, and 6,102 yuan/ton respectively, all showing losses. The overall cost in the north is 5,824 yuan/ton, and in the south is 6,209 yuan/ton [30]. - Ferrosilicon: The production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Qinghai, and Gansu are 5,559 yuan/ton, 5,612 yuan/ton, 5,624 yuan/ton, 5,583 yuan/ton, and 5,633 yuan/ton respectively, all in the loss - making range [41]. Other Data - Manganese Ore Price: The price of South African Mn36.5% semi - carbonate manganese lumps at Tianjin Port and the CIF quotes of South African South32 semi - carbonate manganese lumps are presented in the report [39]. - Carbon and Electricity Prices: The prices of Fugu blue charcoal small materials, Yulin thermal coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices are shown [49][52]. - Steel Mill Bidding Prices: The monthly procurement prices of Hebei representative steel mills for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are included [55]. - Monthly Output: The monthly output and cumulative output of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon in China are provided [61][63]. - Import and Export: The monthly net import volume of manganese ore and the monthly net export volume of ferrosilicon in China are presented [68][69]. - Metal Magnesium Demand: The price of Fugu metal magnesium and the cumulative production of metal magnesium in Yulin, Shaanxi are shown [71]. - Inventory: The inventory of ferrosilicon in alloy plants and steel mills, the inventory available days of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in steel mills, and the manganese ore inventory in alloy plants, steel mills, and ports are included [74][76][77].