纸浆周报：低位震荡，关注需求企稳情况-20250919

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Low-level Fluctuation, Pay Attention to the Stabilization of Demand - Guoxin Futures Pulp Weekly Report" and is dated September 19, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The main contract of pulp futures, SP2511, rebounded from the bottom and then declined, maintaining a low-level fluctuation pattern [7] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis Pulp Market Price - As of September 18, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,600 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.44%, with the decline narrowing by 0.04 percentage points compared to the previous period. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,210 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.02%, turning from a decline to an increase [11] Cumulative Pulp Imports from January to August - In August 2025, China imported 2.653 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.545 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 582.36 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to August increased by 5.0% and 0.3% respectively compared to the same period last year [16] Port Inventory - As of September 18, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.0832 million tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.17 percentage points [20] European Pulp Consumption and Inventory in July - In July 2025, the total inventory in European ports decreased by 1.91% month-on-month and increased by 19.19% compared to July 2024. Only the inventory in ports of the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland increased by 1.72% month-on-month, while the inventory in ports of the UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain decreased by 26.03%, 6.96%, 1.45%, and 7.22% respectively [24] Downstream Pulp Operating Rates - Waste paper pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption. Wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption. Non-wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. As of September 18, the operating load rates of double-coated paper, offset paper, white cardboard, and tissue paper increased by 0.29, 0.66, 0.16, and 2.51 percentage points respectively week-on-week [30] Group 4: Future Outlook - As of September 18, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.0832 million tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.17 percentage points. The cumulative import volume and value from January to August increased by 5.0% and 0.3% respectively compared to the same period last year, with the overall import volume showing a stable performance. Arauco of Chile announced a new round of pulp export quotes for September: softwood pulp Silver Star at 700 US dollars/ton, natural pulp Venus at 590 US dollars/ton, and hardwood pulp Star up 20 US dollars/ton to 540 US dollars/ton. With the new round of export quotes rising, some industry players are reluctant to sell and hold prices. There is a tentative price increase in the spot market of imported softwood pulp, but the profit margin of downstream paper mills is under pressure and their acceptance is limited, resulting in a slight adjustment of pulp prices. During the conversion period between the traditional off-season and peak season of pulp, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the market expectation is weak. It is necessary to wait for the stabilization of downstream demand for a real "reversal". The operation suggestion is to wait for the end of the correction and consider a long position at low prices [35]