美联储9月FOMC会议点评：预防式降息下的谨慎平衡

Global Macro - The Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut to the 4.00%-4.25% range, characterized as a typical preemptive easing to guard against economic downturns, particularly in the labor market [2][4] - The current economic environment is significantly better than the same period last year, with the labor market showing signs of cooling but not reaching crisis levels, allowing for a more flexible monetary policy [4][24] - The Fed's current policy reflects a moderate tolerance for short-term inflation risks, with recent labor market cooling potentially helping to alleviate cost-push inflation pressures [18][24] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market has become a key consideration for the Fed's short-term policy decisions, with non-farm payroll growth slowing significantly, averaging only 29,000 jobs per month as of August [9][14] - The current low unemployment rate is seen as a "weak balance," influenced by structural factors such as immigration restrictions, which limit the labor supply and complicate the Fed's data-driven decision-making [9][12] - A significant rate cut may not lead to a rapid improvement in the labor market, and could instead trigger unexpected inflation increases, suggesting that a more moderate easing approach is preferable [9][18] Economic Forecasts - The Fed's economic projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 show an optimistic outlook, with GDP forecasts being raised and unemployment rate expectations lowered slightly, while inflation predictions were only marginally adjusted upward [24][28] - The anticipated "broad fiscal" impact of the "Big and Beautiful Act" in 2026 and 2027 supports the upward revision of economic growth forecasts, indicating limited room for further rate cuts in the coming years [24][28] - The dot plot from the FOMC indicates significant divergence among committee members regarding future rate cuts, with a median showing potential for two more cuts this year, but with considerable uncertainty remaining [23][25]