美股宏观策略：美国重启降息：美国经济韧性仍在，但就业市场随时恶化

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.0%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December of the previous year [1] - The FOMC's latest economic projections indicate that most members expect an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts this year, with further cuts of 25 basis points anticipated in 2026 and 2027, reflecting a continued accommodative stance [1][2] - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward to 1.6%, up from 1.4% previously, indicating resilience in the economy despite high interest rates [2] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Spending - Retail sales in August increased by 0.6%, significantly exceeding market expectations, with core retail sales (excluding autos and gas) rising by 0.7% [2] - Online shopping saw a growth rate of 2.0%, and dining out also increased, suggesting that high-income households are driving current consumer spending [2] - However, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell to 55.4 in September, indicating a decline in households' outlook on future income and employment [2] Group 3: Inflation Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.38% in August, the fastest increase this year, with core CPI increasing by 0.35%, both surpassing market expectations [3] - Inflationary pressures are shifting from goods to services, with significant increases in housing-related rents and travel costs [3] - The market may need to adjust its expectations regarding economic weakness, as core inflation is driven by strong service demand rather than just goods prices [3] Group 4: Labor Market Dynamics - August employment data showed a significant decline, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, well below the expected 75,000 [4] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.32%, indicating a weakening labor market, with most industries experiencing job losses [4] - The FOMC is closely monitoring labor market risks, and if conditions worsen, there may be further room for policy response [4][12] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on ETFs related to housing, digital currencies, and gold, such as ITB.US, IBIT.US, and GLD.US, as potential investment opportunities in the current economic climate [5][13] - Given the ongoing economic resilience, sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as housing and construction, are expected to benefit from the current environment [13]