巴西双周糖产新高，糖价跌破前低

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International market: Brazil is in the supply peak, and the global inventory is entering the accumulation phase. Although the recent increase in Brazilian sugar production has a bearish impact on the price, considering the current low international sugar price and the fact that the bearish factors have basically materialized, and the Brazilian ethanol - to - sugar price has reached 16.14 cents per pound, there is strong support for low - price sugar, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [4]. - Domestic market: In August, China's sugar imports remained high, domestic sugar inventory was low, and the sales - to - production ratio was high. The domestic market is greatly affected by the trend of foreign sugar. Both foreign and Zhengzhou sugar are at low levels, and domestic sugar inventory is low with a firm basis. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will likely fluctuate within a range and rebound in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: The foreign sugar price has fallen to a low level and is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. The Zhengzhou sugar price has also fallen to a low level, with limited downward space. However, if Zhengzhou sugar increases in positions and breaks through the previous low, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4]. - Options: Wait and see [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - International Supply - Demand Pattern Change - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the global sugar supply gap will be significantly reduced to 231,000 tons compared with 4.879 million tons in the 2024/25 season. Global sugar production is expected to reach 180.593 million tons, an increase of 5.419 million tons from the previous season, mainly due to the production growth in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Global consumption is expected to reach 180.824 million tons, an increase of 771,000 tons. The global sugar trade volume is expected to remain stable, with an export volume of 63.89 million tons and an import demand of 63.768 million tons. The ending inventory/consumption ratio is expected to drop to 50.95%, about 10% lower than six seasons ago [6]. - Brazilian Sugar Production Situation - Double - week situation in the second half of August: In the second half of August, the sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region of Brazil increased. The cane crushing volume was 50.061 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.68%; the sugar - making ratio was 54.2%, a year - on - year increase of 5.42%; the sugar production was 3.872 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.21% [10]. - Accumulated situation by the second half of August: The accumulated cane crushing volume was 403.942 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.78%; the accumulated sugar - making ratio was 52.76%, a year - on - year increase of 3.67%; the accumulated sugar production was 26.759 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92%, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The Brazilian ethanol - to - sugar price has reached 16.14 cents per pound, providing strong support for the raw sugar price [17]. - Situation in Other Countries - Thailand: In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the sugar production was 10.05 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons), and exports from January to June 2025 were 3.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 820,000 tons. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a slight increase in production [20]. - India: In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the sugar production was about 26.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. The 2025/26 season is expected to have a restorative increase in production, with an estimated total production of 34.9 million tons. After meeting domestic consumption of 28.4 million tons, there will be a surplus of about 12 million tons (including 5.5 million tons of carry - over inventory). Even if 5 million tons of sugar are used for ethanol production, the net sugar production will still reach 29.9 million tons, and about 7 million tons will be carried over as ending inventory. This season may export about 2 million tons of sugar [23]. - Domestic Sugar Market Situation - Domestic sugar production in the 2025/26 season: The domestic sugar is in an increasing production cycle, with an expected production of about 11 million tons. The first sugar factory in Inner Mongolia started production on September 8, 4 days earlier than the previous year. The estimated sugar production in Inner Mongolia in the 2025/26 season is 700,000 - 750,000 tons. In Yunnan, about 51 - 52 sugar factories are expected to start production in the 2025/26 season, with the first factory likely to start in mid - to - late October if there are no special circumstances [27]. - Import situation: The import profit is rising, driving a strong import expectation. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 62,700 tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import was 2.6121 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 121,000 tons, or 4.86%. As of August in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative import was 4.0739 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 277,200 tons, or 6.37% [38]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Not provided in the given content, only some data charts are presented, and no specific analysis or summary content is available.