Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-19 08:40Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but Powell's hawkish remarks after the meeting supported the dollar, putting short - term pressure on the RMB and negatively impacting the equity market sentiment. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue according to August economic data, and the bond market is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern [8][15]. - In the commodity market, gold is under short - term pressure but has long - term upward potential, and crude oil's trend is volatile due to geopolitical conflicts. The commodity index is expected to show wide - range oscillations [9]. - In the foreign exchange market, the dollar has short - term rebound space but is under pressure in the medium term, while the euro is supported as the eurozone's inflation eases and the interest - rate cut cycle nears its end [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions Stock Market - A - share major indices generally rose this week, except for the Shanghai Composite Index. The four stock index futures showed different trends, with small and medium - cap stocks performing well, ranked as IM>IC>IF>IH. The release of poor August economic data on Monday pressured the stock market, and Powell's hawkish remarks after the Fed's interest - rate cut on Thursday - Friday negatively affected the equity market sentiment. The market trading activity increased slightly this week. The allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [8][15]. Bond Market - This week, Treasury bond futures showed mixed trends. TS and TL main contracts fell by 0.02% and 0.41% respectively, while TF and T main contracts rose by 0.08% and 0.13% respectively. Emotional factors significantly affect the bond market. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue, and the expectation of restarting Treasury bond trading supports the bond market. The bond market is unlikely to weaken trend - wise, and yields are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [8]. Commodity Market - The Wind Commodity Index fell 0.19%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index rose 0.12%. Gold is under short - term pressure but has long - term upward potential, and crude oil's trend is volatile due to geopolitical conflicts. The commodity index is expected to show wide - range oscillations. The allocation suggestion is to mainly watch [9]. Foreign Exchange Market - The euro against the dollar rose 0.26%, and the euro against the dollar 2509 contract rose 0.22%. The Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's remarks gave the dollar short - term rebound space but put it under medium - term pressure. The eurozone's inflation eases, and the interest - rate cut cycle nears its end, supporting the euro. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [9]. Important News and Events - Global Central Bank Policies: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the ECB kept rates unchanged for the second time, the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%, and the BoJ kept rates unchanged [13][19]. - Domestic Policies: China will select about 50 pilot cities for new consumption formats, models, and scenarios, and introduce a series of policies to boost service consumption [15][17]. - Corporate News: Since the "14th Five - Year Plan", central SOEs' total assets have increased from less than 7 trillion yuan to over 9 trillion yuan, and their total profit has increased from 1.9 trillion yuan to 2.6 trillion yuan [17]. This Week's Domestic and Foreign Economic Data - China: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries was 5.2% (expected 5.7%, previous value 5.7%), fixed - asset investment was 0.5% (expected 1.4%, previous value 1.6%), infrastructure investment was 3.2%, manufacturing investment was 6.2%, real - estate development investment decreased by 12%, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.4% (expected 3.9%, previous value 3.7%) [14]. - US: In August, the retail sales monthly rate was 0.6% (expected 0.2%, previous value 0.6%), the industrial output monthly rate was 0.1% (expected - 0.1%, previous value - 0.4%), and the initial jobless claims for the week ending September 13 were 231,000 (expected 240,000, previous value 264,000) [20]. - EU: In July, the seasonally - adjusted trade balance was 53 billion euros (previous value 37 billion euros), the industrial output monthly rate was 0.3% (expected 0.4%, previous value - 0.6%), and the CPI annual rate in August was 2% (expected 2.1%, previous value 2.1%) [20]. - UK: The unemployment rate in August was 4.39% (previous value 4.4%) [20]. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - From September 22 - 26, there are important economic data releases in China, the eurozone, the US, France, Germany, and the UK, such as China's one - year loan prime rate, the eurozone's consumer confidence index, and the US's core PCE price index [81].