从价格博弈到价值竞争：汽车行业最新政策梳理-20250919

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The automotive industry is undergoing a transformation from scale - expansion to value - creation, with anti - involution as the underlying logic. In the short term, industry supervision will focus on preventing behaviors such as below - cost dumping, shoddy workmanship, and excessive promotion. However, it is difficult to immediately stop price cuts or raise car prices due to factors like scale effects, technological upgrades, raw material price drops, intense competition, and consumer behavior changes [31]. - The new energy vehicle industry is expected to continue growing, driven by public - domain and county - level market expansion, old - for - new subsidy policies, and the industrialization of intelligent and connected vehicle technologies [2][20][23]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 《汽车行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》 - Sales Targets in 2025: The target is to achieve annual vehicle sales of about 32.3 million, a year - on - year increase of about 3%, with new energy vehicle sales reaching about 15.5 million, a year - on - year increase of about 20%. The auto export is expected to maintain stable growth, and the added value of the automotive manufacturing industry is expected to increase by about 6% year - on - year. Compared with the initial forecast, the new energy vehicle sales target has been slightly adjusted down by 500,000 units [2][8]. - Current Sales Performance: From January to August 2025, the cumulative vehicle sales were 21.128 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.6%, completing 65.4% of the annual target. The cumulative new energy vehicle sales were 9.62 million, a year - on - year increase of 36.7%, completing 61.9% of the annual target. The sales growth rate has slowed down since August due to the high base from the previous year [9]. - Growth Drivers: - Public - domain and county - level markets will bring incremental demand. The plan aims to promote over 700,000 new energy vehicles in public - domain transportation in 25 pilot cities [13]. - Old - for - new subsidy policies have been optimized in 2025 compared to 2024, but some regional subsidies have been adjusted since mid - 2025 [20]. - The industrialization of intelligent and connected vehicle technologies, with the conditional approval of L3 - level vehicle mass production, will stimulate potential consumer demand [23]. 3.2 《汽车整车企业供应商账款支付规范倡议》 - Key Operational Standards: It defines the standards for order confirmation, delivery acceptance, payment settlement, and contract terms. For example, vehicle manufacturers should complete acceptance within 3 working days, and the payment period should not exceed 60 natural days from the date of acceptance. It encourages cash or bank acceptance bill payments, especially for small and medium - sized suppliers, and advocates long - term stable cooperation with contract validity of at least one year [3][24]. - Background and Significance: The automotive industry is experiencing price cuts (about 15% in the overall market, 20% for fuel vehicles, and 8% for new energy vehicles), and the industry's profit margin has declined to 4.3% in 2024. Vehicle manufacturers have transferred cost pressure to suppliers. The initiative aims to build a positive cycle of "quality - cost - price" and a collaborative ecosystem of "vehicle - parts" [25]. 3.3 Summary and Thinking - Industry Transformation: The automotive industry is shifting from scale - driven to value - driven growth. In the short term, industry supervision will focus on preventing unfair competition, but it is difficult to immediately change the price - cut trend due to various factors [31]. - Market Incentive Policies: - Loan interest subsidies are available for personal consumer loans from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026, with an annual interest subsidy rate of 1 percentage point, capped at 50% of the loan contract interest rate [35]. - New energy vehicle purchase tax exemptions will be phased out. They are fully exempted from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2025, and halved from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [36][38].