9月美联储议息会议点评：意料之中的降息

Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations[1] - The median rate forecast for the end of the year is 3.5%-3.75%, indicating an additional 50 basis points of potential cuts within the year[2] - Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management cut," reflecting a balanced policy stance between hawkish and dovish views[1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed raised its real GDP growth forecast for next year to 1.8% while slightly lowering the unemployment rate forecast and raising core inflation expectations[2] - There is significant divergence among committee members regarding future rate cuts, with 9 members advocating for 2 more cuts, while 6 believe no further cuts are necessary[2] - Despite a weakening job market, consumer and retail sales indicators remain robust, suggesting a favorable environment for risk assets[3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The likelihood of two additional 25 basis point cuts in upcoming meetings is high, making the current environment favorable for equities[3] - Investors are advised to maintain equity asset allocations until there is a clear deterioration in economic indicators[3] Group 4: Risk Factors - Unexpectedly strong recovery in the job market and persistent inflation above expectations could delay the Fed's rate cut schedule[4]