Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new - season peanuts show mixed price movements, with the futures market oscillating at the bottom. The trading volume of peanuts has decreased. The price of general - purpose peanuts has fallen in Henan and risen in the Northeast. The purchase price of oil mills is relatively strong. The downstream consumption remains weak. The inventory of peanuts in oil mills is decreasing, while the inventory of peanut oil is starting to increase. The No. 11 peanut futures are oscillating strongly at the bottom, and the 11 - 1 spread is stable. Some peanuts have been listed, with weak demand. The output of new - crop peanuts may increase or remain flat, and the planting cost has decreased. Peanut spot prices continue to fall, and futures are oscillating at the bottom [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Option Strategy: Consider selling the pk511 - P - 7600 option strategy [5]. - Trading Logic: The trading volume of peanuts has decreased. The price of general - purpose peanuts in Henan has fallen, while in the Northeast it has risen. The purchase price of oil mills is relatively strong. The price of imported peanuts is stable, and the import volume has decreased significantly. The operating rate of oil mills has increased. The spot price of peanut meal is stable, and the price of peanut oil is stable. The profit of oil mills from pressing has decreased. Downstream consumption remains weak. The inventory of peanuts in oil mills has decreased, while the inventory of peanut oil has started to increase. The No. 11 peanut futures are oscillating strongly at the bottom, and the 11 - 1 spread is stable. Some peanuts have been listed, with weak demand. The output of new - crop peanuts may increase or remain flat, and the planting cost has decreased. Peanut spot prices continue to fall, and futures are oscillating at the bottom [6]. - Strategy: The No. 11 peanut futures are oscillating at the bottom. Consider buying the No. 5 peanut futures at low prices. - Spread Strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 11 - 1 spread when it is high [6]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Peanut Price: The purchase price of oil mills is stable. The price of imported peanuts is stable. The price of general - purpose peanuts shows mixed movements, with prices falling in Henan and rising in the Northeast. For example, the price of large peanuts in Junan, Shandong is 4.1 yuan per catty, remaining stable from last week; the price of new - season peanuts in Zhengyang, Henan is 4.2 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from last week; the price of Baisha peanuts in Changtu, Liaoning is 4.1 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.15 yuan per catty from last week; the price of Baisha peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin is 4 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.1 yuan per catty from last week. The general - purpose peanut trading volume is average, with prices showing mixed movements. The basic purchase price of oil mills is between 7300 - 7800 yuan per ton, remaining stable from last week. The price of Sudanese old peanuts is 8150 yuan per ton, and new peanuts are 8500 yuan per ton. The price of Senegalese oil - purpose peanuts is between 7600 - 7800 yuan per ton, remaining stable from last week [9][11]. - Domestic Demand: The operating rate of oil mills has increased. As of September 18, the operating rate of peanut oil mills this week is 12.1%, a month - on - month increase of 2.63%. The arrival volume of oil mills has increased this week. The peanut inventory in oil mills is 53,800 tons, a decrease of 11,800 tons from last week. The peanut oil inventory is 37,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons from last week [13][15]. - Pressing Profit: The purchase price of peanuts by peanut oil mills has increased, the price of peanut meal is stable, and the price of peanut oil is stable. As a result, the pressing profit of oil mills is 10 yuan per ton, a decrease of 125 yuan per ton from last week. The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 14,700 yuan per ton, remaining stable from last week. The price of small - pressed concentrated fragrant oil is 16,500 yuan per ton, remaining stable from last week. Due to the strong spot price of soybean meal, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, and the price of peanut meal is relatively strong, at 3260 yuan per ton this week, remaining the same as last week [17][19]. - Basis and Spread: This week, due to the strong performance of the No. 11 peanut futures, the 11 - 1 peanut spread is stable at around - 20 yuan. The spot - futures price difference has decreased. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [21][24][25]. - Peanut Import: In July, the import volume of peanut kernels was 9,500 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to July was 103,000 tons, a 77% decrease compared to the same period last year. In July, the export volume of peanut kernels was 9,000 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to July was 95,000 tons, a 27% increase compared to the same period last year. In July, the import volume of peanut oil was 42,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume of peanut oil from January to July was 223,000 tons, a 40% increase compared to the same period last year [28][30]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of Shandong general - purpose peanut kernels, the purchase price of oil mills, the basis between Shandong spot and continuous contracts, the operating rate of peanut oil mills, the peanut inventory and pressing volume of oil mills, the pressing profit of oil mills, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal, the price of Shandong peanut oil, the 1 - 4, 4 - 10, and 10 - 1 spreads of peanuts, the import and export volume of peanut kernels and peanut oil, etc. These data visually reflect the market conditions of peanuts in different periods [10][14][18][23][26][29].
新季花生涨跌互现，盘面底部震荡
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-09-19 09:27