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美股策略:“预防式”降息驱动美股上涨
Guotai Junan Securities·2025-09-19 09:39

Core Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. stock market, particularly the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices, has experienced significant gains driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][5] - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut is characterized as a "risk management cut," aimed at preemptively addressing potential economic risks rather than responding to an existing recession [6][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer spending, noting that U.S. retail sales data has exceeded expectations for three consecutive months, indicating strong consumer resilience [11][13] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has slightly upgraded its economic growth forecasts for this year and next, while maintaining stable inflation and unemployment rate predictions, signaling a robust economic foundation for the stock market [9][13] - The report suggests that the "preventive" nature of the recent rate cut is expected to stabilize economic expectations and support corporate earnings, thereby benefiting the stock market [4][7] Market Performance - The S&P 500 index recorded a cumulative increase of 2.0% and the Nasdaq 100 index saw a 3.5% rise in the ten trading days leading up to September 18, reflecting market anticipation of policy easing [5][11] - Small-cap stocks are expected to outperform large-cap stocks due to their higher reliance on floating-rate financing, benefiting more from the reduced borrowing costs following the rate cut [9][11] Sector Analysis - The telecommunications, information technology, and consumer discretionary sectors have shown the best performance in the current market environment [11][12] - The report indicates that the historical context of last year's "preventive" rate cut led to sustained gains in the stock market, suggesting a potential repeat of this trend under similar economic conditions [11][13]