山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250919

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver, with the main contract of Shanghai gold closing down 0.41% and the main contract of Shanghai silver closing up 0.64%. The short - term core logic includes: in terms of short - term hedging, trade agreements are being reached in batches, but concerns about the Fed's independence have resurfaced; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are starting to materialize. Geopolitical uncertainties still exist in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further rate cuts. The market expects a 90%+ probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more rate cuts this year. It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate at high levels in the short term and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver decreased slightly, and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver increased slightly [6]. Summary by Section Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3]. - Data Summary: International gold prices (Comex gold and London gold) increased, and domestic gold prices (Shanghai gold and gold T + D) also rose. The basis and spreads, and various ratios showed different changes. The positions of Comex gold increased, while the positions of Shanghai gold main contract decreased. The inventories of LBMA and Shanghai gold remained stable, while the Comex gold inventory decreased slightly. The net long position of CFTC management funds decreased, and the SPDR gold ETF inventory decreased slightly [3]. - Net Position Ranking: In the top 10 net long position ranking of Shanghai gold futures company members, the total net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 all increased. In the top 10 net short position ranking, the total net short positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 also increased [4]. Silver - Strategy: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips. Position management and strict stop - losses and take - profits are recommended [7]. - Data Summary: International silver prices (Comex silver and London silver) showed mixed trends, and domestic silver prices (Shanghai silver and silver T + D) increased. The basis and spreads changed. The positions of Comex silver decreased, while the positions of Shanghai silver main contract increased. The visible inventory of silver increased slightly. The net long position of CFTC management funds decreased, and the iShare silver ETF inventory increased [7]. - Net Position Ranking: In the top 10 net long position ranking of Shanghai silver futures company members, the total net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 all increased. In the top 10 net short position ranking, the total net short positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 also increased [8]. Fundamental Key Data - Fed - Related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate and the discount rate decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets increased slightly. M2 increased year - on - year. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, and the VIX index increased, while the geopolitical risk index decreased significantly [9][12]. - Interest Rate Spreads and Inflation: The US - EU and US - China interest rate spreads (10 - year bond yields) increased. The CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and core PCE price index all showed different degrees of change. The inflation expectations of the University of Michigan also changed [11]. - Economic Indicators: GDP growth showed different trends in annualized year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter terms. The unemployment rate increased, and non - farm payrolls decreased. The labor participation rate decreased, and average hourly wage growth slowed down. Other economic indicators in the labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys also showed various changes [11]. - Central Bank Gold Reserves and Foreign Exchange Reserves: The central bank gold reserves of China increased slightly, while those of the US remained stable. The proportion of the US dollar in IMF foreign exchange reserves increased, while the proportion of the euro decreased. The ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves increased globally and in China and the US [12]. - Fed Interest Rate Expectations: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market has different expectations for the Fed's interest rate range in different periods from October 2025 to October 2027 [13].