工业硅多晶硅市场周报：双硅短期暂无驱动，消息影响依旧持续-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, industrial silicon prices rose by 6.4%, while polysilicon prices fell by 1.7%. The industrial silicon futures market showed an upward trend due to reduced production, while the polysilicon market maintained a slight fluctuation [4]. - For industrial silicon, the supply - side situation shows that although the overall supply surplus situation has not improved, the开工 rate has decreased. The demand from the three major downstream industries remains flat, and the industry inventory is still at a high level. It is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon oscillates in the range of 8800 - 9800, with a stop - loss range of 8000 - 10000 [4]. - For polysilicon, supply remains flat and demand weakens. It is expected to show a high - level oscillation next week. The main contract of polysilicon should oscillate in the short term, with an oscillation range of 52000 - 58000 and a stop - loss range of 49000 - 60000 [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Performance: Industrial silicon prices rose by 6.4% this week, and polysilicon prices fell by 1.7%. The industrial silicon futures market showed an upward trend, and polysilicon maintained a slight fluctuation [4]. - Market Outlook - Industrial Silicon: On the supply side, the spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated upward, the 开工 rate was 33.12%, a 1.91% decrease from last week. There is a production - reduction expectation in the Southwest, and the Northwest has stable production. On the demand side, the total demand from the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) remains flat, and the industry inventory is still high [4]. - Market Outlook - Polysilicon: On the supply side, short - term supply is difficult to increase significantly. On the demand side, the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged, and the demand is expected to be suppressed. It is expected to show a high - level oscillation next week [4]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract of industrial silicon should oscillate in the range of 8800 - 9800, with a stop - loss range of 8000 - 10000. The main contract of polysilicon should oscillate in the short term, with an oscillation range of 52000 - 58000 and a stop - loss range of 49000 - 60000 [4]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Industrial Silicon: The spot price of industrial silicon increased this week, and the basis weakened. As of September 18, 2025, the spot price was 9350 yuan/ton, and the basis was 445 yuan/ton. The 开工 rate and production decreased. As of September 18, 2025, the national industrial silicon production was about 84,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 57.85% [10][12][19]. - Polysilicon: The futures and spot prices of polysilicon increased this week, and the basis strengthened. As of September 18, 2025, the spot price was 52.6 yuan/kg, and the basis was - 605 yuan/g [14][16]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Cost: This week, the raw materials and electricity prices of industrial silicon remained flat, and the overall cost during the wet season continued to be low. From September 12 to 18, 2025, the electricity prices in the Southwest and Northwest remained stable at 0.30 yuan/kWh, but the coking coal price in the Northwest increased [21][24]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipts of industrial silicon decreased this week. As of September 18, 2025, the number of warehouse receipts was 49,871 lots, a decrease of 174 lots compared to the previous period [26][28]. - Downstream Organic Silicon: The production and 开工 rate of organic silicon decreased this week. As of September 18, 2025, the weekly production was 46,700 tons, a decrease of 2.3%, and the weekly 开工 rate was 71.12%, a decrease of 2.2%. The cost increased, the spot price remained unchanged, the profit decreased, and the demand for industrial silicon is expected to decline [30][35][41]. - Downstream Aluminum Alloy: The spot price of aluminum alloy increased, and the inventory continued to rise. As of September 18, 2025, the price was 20,800 yuan/ton, and the inventory was 71,400 tons, an increase of 600 tons compared to the previous week. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to be negative [43][48]. - Downstream Polysilicon: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells increased, and the demand for polysilicon remained flat, with a slight expected increase. As of September 18, 2025, the price of silicon wafers was 1.48 yuan/piece, an increase of 0.03 yuan/piece compared to the previous week, and the price of battery cells was 0.3 yuan/W, the same as the previous week [50][52]. - Polysilicon Industry: This week, the cost, profit, and inventory of polysilicon increased. As of September 18, 2025, the profit was 12,690 yuan/ton, the average cost was 39,910 yuan/ton, and the inventory was 278,500 tons [57][61].