原油周度报告-20250919

Report Summary - The report is an oil weekly report from AVIC Futures dated September 19, 2025, focusing on market analysis and trading strategies [2][8] - This week, oil prices first rose then fell, showing a narrow - range oscillation. The trading logic lies in the game between the "strong reality, weak expectation" fundamentals and geopolitics [8] - The report suggests paying attention to the WTI crude oil price range of $61 - 66 per barrel [8][47] Market Focus and Key Data Market Focus - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, starting the first rate cut this year. There is still room for further cuts this year [7][12] - China and the US reached a basic framework consensus on properly resolving the TikTok issue [7] - Russia - Ukraine negotiations paused, escalating geopolitical tensions [7][13] Key Data - US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending September 12 decreased by 9.285 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 0.857 million barrels, with the previous value at 3.939 million barrels [7][37] - US EIA Cushing crude oil inventory for the week ending September 12 decreased by 0.296 million barrels, with the previous value at - 0.365 million barrels [7][43] - US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week ending September 12 was 0.504 million barrels, with the previous value at 0.514 million barrels [7][37] Bull - Bear Focus Bullish Factors - Geopolitical disturbances [11] - Shale oil cost support [11] Bearish Factors - Fading expectation of the consumption peak season [11] - Accelerated implementation of OPEC+ production increase [11] Macro Analysis Fed Interest Rate Cut - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25BP to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 18, the first rate cut in 2025. It is expected to cut rates two more times this year [12] Geopolitical Tensions - Russia - Ukraine negotiations paused, and the US and Europe threatened to impose tariffs on Russian oil buyers, but geopolitical disturbances are complex and uncertain, hard to provide clear direction [13] Data Analysis Supply - Side Data - US domestic crude oil production for the week ending September 12 decreased by 13,000 barrels per day to 13.482 million barrels per day, but overall supply pressure increased [14] - The total number of US oil rigs as of September 12 was 416, an increase of 2 from the previous period, ending the downward trend since April, but expected to remain low [16] Demand - Side Data - US crude oil implied demand for the week ending September 12 was 20.5 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 1.297 million barrels per day [20] - US gasoline production implied demand for the week ending September 12 was 9.7823 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 0.2806 million barrels per day [20] - US refinery utilization rate as of September 12 was 93.3%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous period [22] - As of September 18, the operating rate of China's major refineries was 81.52%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points, while that of independent refineries was 62.3%, an increase of 0.56 percentage points [28] - As of September 12, the comprehensive refining profit of China's major refineries was 867.05 yuan per ton, an increase of 205.19 yuan per ton, and that of independent refineries was 278.22 yuan per ton, an increase of 90.11 yuan per ton [32] Inventory Data - US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending September 12 decreased by 9.285 million barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory continued to accumulate [37] - US Cushing crude oil inventory for the week ending September 12 decreased by 0.296 million barrels, and gasoline inventory decreased by 2.347 million barrels [43] Crack Spread Data - As of September 16, the US crude oil crack spread was $20.49 per barrel, showing a slight week - on - week increase, indicating some resilience in US refined oil consumption [44] Outlook - After the Fed's rate - cut expectation materialized, market risk appetite declined, and oil prices were under pressure. The core market contradiction is the game between fundamentals and geopolitics [47] - OPEC+ production increase and the end of the demand peak season strengthen the expectation of supply surplus, while geopolitical conflicts provide intermittent support. Oil prices are expected to continue wide - range oscillation [47]