中航期货铝产业链周度报告-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall situation is still bullish, transitioning from trading "policy expectations" to trading "fundamentals." Aluminum prices should focus on the support around 20,600 and await the verification of the peak season of domestic downstream demand [5]. - For aluminum alloys, the short - term supply - demand fundamentals change little, and the alloy prices still fluctuate with aluminum prices. It is recommended to take a bullish approach on pullbacks [67]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first rate cut this year and the restart after a 9 - month hiatus. The meeting was generally in line with expectations but reduced the rate - cut expectations for next year, with a neutral - to - hawkish stance [5][11]. - From January to August, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.2% year - on - year, with the growth rate down 0.1 percentage points from January to July. Infrastructure investment grew by 2.0% year - on - year, with the growth rate down 1.2 percentage points; manufacturing investment grew by 5.1%, down 1.1 percentage points; real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, with the decline widening by 0.9 percentage points [5]. - Aluminum supply - side increments are relatively limited, and the seasonally strong consumption season has seen an increase in the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises. However, high aluminum prices have curbed the purchasing enthusiasm of processing enterprises, and the inflection point of social inventory has not yet arrived [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Side Focus - Bullish factors: Limited supply - side increments, continuous increase in the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises, and social inventory remaining at a low level [8]. - Bearish factors: Alumina prices continue to be weak, and the rate - cut利好 is exhausted [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Aluminum ore production: From January to July 2025, China's aluminum ore production was 35.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.21%. In July, it was 543,450 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.42%. Guinean imported ore remains stable, but attention should be paid to the disturbances around the referendum [16][19]. - Alumina: In August 2025, China's alumina production was 7.925 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the spot price is expected to continue to adjust weakly [23]. - Primary aluminum: In August 2025, China's primary aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In September, the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly [25]. - Aluminum downstream processing: The operating rate of leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2% this week, but high aluminum prices have curbed inventory - building. In August, China's aluminum product output was 5.548 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.2% [28][31]. - Inventory: LME and SHFE aluminum inventories both increased. As of September 18, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 636,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from Monday [41][45]. - Price spread: On September 18, the average price premium of Shanghai Wumaohui aluminum was - 20 yuan/ton, with the discount narrowing; the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium was 4.89 US dollars/ton, with the premium narrowing [49]. - Recycled aluminum: In August, recycled aluminum alloy production was 614,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. It is expected to decline slightly in September. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 0.2 percentage points to 55.5% as of September 11 [53][57]. - Import and export: In July 2025, the import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.6%, hitting a four - year low [61]. - Aluminum alloy inventory: As of September 19, China's weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy was 71,400 tons, an increase of 600 tons from last week, and the in - factory inventory was 60,800 tons, an increase of 300 tons from last week [66]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Aluminum alloy: The short - term supply - demand fundamentals change little, and the alloy prices still fluctuate with aluminum prices. It is recommended to take a bullish approach on pullbacks [67]. - SHFE aluminum: Aluminum prices should focus on the support around 20,600 and await the verification of the peak season of domestic downstream demand [70].