有色企稳回升

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper: Copper prices stabilized and rebounded today, with the decline in open interest slowing. The Fed's interest rate cut has reduced short - term disturbances from long - position liquidation. The industry is entering the peak season, and the decline in copper prices may increase downstream replenishment willingness. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 80,000 level [5]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices rose slightly in the morning but fell continuously during the day, with open interest continuously decreasing. After the Fed's interest rate cut, previous long - positions were continuously liquidated. Downstream replenishment willingness is weak, and electrolytic aluminum social inventory has been accumulating this week. Technically, Shanghai aluminum faced significant technical pressure after hitting a high in March and then falling back [6]. - Nickel: Shanghai nickel rose in the morning, with the main contract price approaching the 122,000 level, and fluctuated during the day, with open interest continuously decreasing. The Fed's interest rate cut has reduced short - term disturbances from long - position liquidation. Domestically, nickel ore port inventory and SHFE nickel inventory are continuously rising, which is negative for nickel prices. Technically, nickel prices rebounded with a reduction in positions, indicating strong short - covering willingness. As macro disturbances decline, the futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: On September 16, 2025, the construction mobilization meeting of the ±800 kV UHV DC transmission project from Southeast Tibet to the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area was held. The project, with a total investment of about 53.2 billion yuan, will be fully operational in 2029, and will directly boost copper cable demand. This week, copper cable downstream industries' demand was weak due to high copper prices. State Grid orders remained flat, automotive wiring harness orders were stable, and construction and two - grid orders are expected to be released in October. High copper prices have also weakened enterprises' procurement willingness, leading to a decrease in raw material inventory and an increase in sample enterprises' finished - product inventory ratio. The enameled wire industry showed a slight increase in the operating rate but faced pressure on new orders, with new orders decreasing by 1.07 percentage points month - on - month [9][10]. - Nickel: On September 19, the price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 121,400 - 124,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,750 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,350 yuan/ton, a 150 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was in the range of - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - Copper: The report presents charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, electrolytic copper domestic explicit inventory, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - Aluminum: There are charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [24][26][28]. - Nickel: The charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40].