棉花周报：郑棉走弱，新棉即将上市-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, with the upcoming seed - cotton purchase, the expected purchase price is 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The Zhengzhou cotton futures face significant hedging pressure above 14,000 yuan/ton, while there is insufficient motivation for hedging below 13,000 yuan/ton. The "Golden September and Silver October" in consumption is lackluster, and the downstream profits are poor, so the cotton price is expected to turn weak. [53] - Internationally, the cotton price has risen and then fallen. The impact of the US dollar interest - rate cut is not positive. However, the expected 3 interest - rate cuts in the US in 2025 by mainstream institutions may boost the cotton market later. The USDA's monthly supply - demand report has little impact on the market. The US cotton export data has improved, and the consumption provides some support, so the cotton price is expected to fluctuate. [53] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - Futures Price Trends: Zhengzhou cotton futures weakened this week with a weekly decline of 1.01%, while ICE cotton futures fluctuated slightly with a weekly increase of 0.03% [11] - Spot Prices: This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 62 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index increased by 70 yuan/ton [16] - Cotton Imports: In August, 70,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons [21] - Cotton Inventory: At the end of August, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 338,500 tons compared with the first half of August [25] - Downstream Inventory: In August, the yarn inventory was 26.58 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.35 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 33.87 days, a year - on - year increase of 4.11 days [30] - Yarn Prices: This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S and C32S increased by 20 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the price of JC40S increased by 60 yuan/ton [35] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 567, with 4438 warehouse receipts and 12 valid forecasts, totaling 4450 [41] - US Cotton Exports: As of September 11, the net sales of US upland cotton for the current year increased by 186,100 bales, and the net sales for the next year were 19,000 bales [44] - US Weather: The total area in drought (D1 - D4) in the US is 34.2%, with different drought levels covering different percentages of the country [50] 3.2后市展望 - Domestic cotton is expected to turn weak, while international cotton is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with attention to be paid to macro - level changes [53]