Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, with a divergence in far - month pricing and uncertainty about near - term direction, which depends on the downstream destocking ability during the peak season [2] - For glass, the inventory of the upper and middle reaches remains high, the phased restocking ability is weak, some production lines may have ignition plans, and policy expectations fluctuate. The daily melting on the supply side is around 160,000 tons with a slight increase expected. The cumulative apparent demand from January to August is estimated to decline by 6 - 7%, and the spot market is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus [2][3] - For纯碱, the medium - to - long - term supply is expected to remain high, normal maintenance continues, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of Yuangxing Phase II in the fourth quarter. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have improved, and there is an expectation of price increase. The overall rigid demand for纯碱 is stable, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.60% and a historical percentile of 74.3% over 3 years. For soda ash, the price range is 1100 - 1500, with a volatility of 19.07% and a historical percentile of 13.9% [1] Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies - Glass Inventory Management: For high glass product inventory, short FG2601 futures at 1400 with a 50% ratio and sell FG601C1400 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1] - Glass Purchase Management: For low glass purchase inventory, buy FG2601 futures at 1100 - 1150 with a 50% ratio and sell FG601P1100 put options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio [1] - Soda Ash Inventory Management: For high soda ash product inventory, short SA2601 futures at 1550 - 1600 with a 50% ratio and sell SA601C1500 call options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio [1] - Soda Ash Purchase Management: For low soda ash purchase inventory, buy SA2601 futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1] Glass and Soda Ash Market Data Glass - On September 19, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1343, 1405, and 1216 respectively, with daily increases of 1.13%, 1.3%, and 0.66% [4] - The spot prices of glass in most regions remained stable on September 19, 2025, with only slight declines in some brands in the Shahe area [5] Soda Ash - On September 19, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1407, 1454, and 1318 respectively, with daily increases of 0.5%, 0.83%, and 0.92% [6] - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in most regions remained unchanged on September 18, 2025, except for a 12 - unit increase in the Shahe heavy - soda price [7]
玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报-20250919
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-19 10:44