利好预期发酵，钢矿震荡走高：钢材&铁矿石日报-20250919

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.73%, and the volume and open interest contracted. The supply - demand pattern has improved, but downstream demand concerns remain. With cost increases and policy expectations as positives, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated with a daily increase of 0.18%, volume decreased and open interest increased. Demand resilience is weakening, supply remains high, the supply - demand pattern has weakened, inventory has increased again, and coil prices are under pressure. With cost increases and production restrictions as positives, the subsequent trend is expected to be weakly fluctuating. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore was strongly fluctuating with a daily increase of 0.81%, and the volume and open interest expanded. Pre - holiday ore demand is okay, supporting high - level prices, but demand resilience will weaken, supply is rising, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. High - valued ore prices have limited upward momentum, and the trend is expected to continue high - level fluctuations. Be wary of intensified industrial contradictions [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce hopes that the EU will not weaponize tariffs, eliminate market barriers, and encourage fair competition, and jointly create a fair market environment for the industry [6]. - Shanghai has optimized and adjusted policies on the pilot personal housing property tax. Eligible homebuyers for the first - set home are exempt from property tax [7]. - Ningxia has released a draft plan for air pollution prevention and control in the winter - spring of 2025 - 2026, requiring 3 steel enterprises to complete key project renovations by the end of December 2025 [8]. Spot Market - Rebar: Shanghai price is 3,230, Tianjin price is 3,210, and the national average is 3,298 [9]. - Hot - rolled coil: Shanghai price is 3,420, Tianjin price is 3,320, and the national average is 3,444 [9]. - Other: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 799, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 798 [9]. Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease (%) | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,172 | 0.73 | 1,250,591 | 1,970,510 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3,374 | 0.18 | 459,672 | 1,413,153 | | Iron ore | 807.5 | 0.81 | 379,811 | 574,521 | [13] Related Charts - Include charts on steel and iron ore inventories (rebar, hot - rolled coil, national 45 - port iron ore, etc.), production conditions (247 - sample steel mill blast furnace start - up rate, etc.) [15][20][30]. 后市研判 - Rebar: Supply has decreased due to losses, demand has improved but is still at a low level in recent years. With cost and policy as positives, steel prices are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to demand [39]. - Hot - rolled coil: Supply has increased, demand has weakened, and the supply - demand pattern has deteriorated. With cost and production restrictions as positives, the price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. Attention should be paid to demand [39]. - Iron ore: Demand is okay before the holiday but will weaken, supply is rising, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. High - valued ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. Be wary of contradictions [40].