Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-19 10:36Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures prices of soda ash and glass both rose. Soda ash futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling. In the first half of the week, influenced by the news of soda ash production cuts, there was a significant upward movement. Subsequently, due to the digestion of the positive impact of the Fed's interest rate cut, market sentiment declined, and the futures price dropped. The trend of glass futures was the same as that of soda ash, with similar influencing factors [6]. - For soda ash, in the supply - side, the domestic soda ash operating rate and production decreased. In the long - term, with the "anti - involution" policy, some backward production capacities may be phased out, while the more environmentally friendly natural soda ash production capacity is rising steadily, with no obvious overall change in capacity. In the demand - side, the cold repair number of glass production lines remained unchanged, with overall production at a low level, showing obvious signs of rigid - demand production. The profit increased due to the rising spot price, and it is expected to remain at a low level next week. The demand from photovoltaic glass remained unchanged this week, but with the "anti - involution" process, the demand is expected to weaken. The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises increased slightly this week, and the replenishment by traders continued but with reduced intensity. Overall, soda ash supply is expected to be loose, demand to decline slightly, and prices to remain under pressure, but there may be variables with "anti - involution" speculation. - For glass, in the supply - side, the situation is similar to that of soda ash's demand for glass, with production at a low level and profit increasing due to rising spot prices, expected to remain low next week. In the demand - side, the current real - estate situation is not optimistic. If the central bank cuts interest rates, it will support real - estate demand; otherwise, it will continue to drag down glass demand. The downstream deep - processing orders increased slightly, with purchases mainly for rigid demand. Although the inventory has started to accumulate again, the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged. If the central bank cuts interest rates next Monday, the market may grow again [6]. - The SA2601 contract is recommended to be traded in the range of 1,280 - 1,360, with stop - loss in the range of 1,240 - 1,380. The FG2601 contract is recommended to be operated in the range of 1,150 - 1,240, with stop - loss in the range of 1,130 - 1,260. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risks [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - Market Review: This week, soda ash futures rose 2.17%, and glass futures rose 3.05%. Soda ash futures first rose and then fell. The first half - week increase was due to production cut news, and the subsequent decline was due to the digestion of the Fed's interest - rate cut positive. Glass futures had the same trend [6]. - Market Outlook: For soda ash, supply is expected to be loose, demand to decline slightly, and prices to remain under pressure but may change with "anti - involution" speculation. For glass, if the central bank cuts interest rates, it will support real - estate demand; otherwise, it will continue to drag down glass demand. The market may grow again if there is an interest - rate cut next Monday [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: Trade SA2601 in the 1,280 - 1,360 range with a 1,240 - 1,380 stop - loss, and operate FG2601 in the 1,150 - 1,240 range with a 1,130 - 1,260 stop - loss [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: This week, soda ash and glass futures prices both rose [8]. - Spot Prices and Basis: The spot price of soda ash increased, and the basis strengthened. The spot price of glass also strengthened, and the basis increased, expected to further strengthen in the future. The soda ash - glass price difference weakened this week and is expected to strengthen next week [12][16][20]. - Specific Data: As of September 18, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1,215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12.5 yuan/ton, and the soda ash basis was - 89.5 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1,084 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan/ton, and the glass basis was - 124 yuan/ton. The glass - soda ash price difference was 98 yuan/ton [14][18][22]. 3. Industry Chain Analysis - Production and Operating Rate: This week, the domestic soda ash operating rate and production decreased. As of September 18, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 85.78%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.35%, and the national weekly soda ash production was 74.57 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2%. The cold - repair number of glass production lines remained unchanged, and the overall production remained at a low level, with a slight expected increase next week [24][29][36]. - Profit and Cost: As of September 18, 2025, the theoretical profit of China's dual - ton soda ash by the combined - soda process was - 73 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost was 1,739 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 57 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of China's ammonia - soda process soda ash was - 80 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost was 1,320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 44 yuan/ton. The profit of glass enterprises increased mainly due to the strengthening of spot prices. It is expected that the soda ash production capacity will decline next week, and the glass production capacity will remain at a low level [31][34]. - Inventory: The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises increased slightly this week, and the replenishment by traders continued but with reduced intensity. The glass enterprise inventory decreased, and the de - stocking is expected to slow down next week. As of September 18, 2025, the soda ash enterprise inventory was 175.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%, and the total glass enterprise inventory was 60.908 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1.09% [47][51]. - Downstream Demand: The deep - processing orders of domestic glass downstream increased slightly, but the demand remained low. As of September 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.5 days [53][55].