Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-19 10:35Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The freight rate is still suppressed by the fundamentals in the short term. With demand not significantly improving, overcapacity remains a huge pressure on the supply side, limiting the recovery space of shipping prosperity. Whether the price increase announced by leading shipping companies in December can be implemented depends on the cargo volume in the fourth quarter. Although the economic data of the eurozone has improved, the overall situation is not optimistic. Due to high uncertainty in tariffs and a wait - and - see market attitude, freight and industry profitability are expected to be under pressure, and the traditional peak season this year may show the characteristic of "weak peak season", with the freight rate expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to factors such as the actual follow - up increase of shipping companies' opening prices in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade war - related information [7][43] Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - The price of the container freight index (European line) futures fell this week. The main contract EC2510 closed down 11.10%, while the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 5%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1440.24, down 126.22 points from last week, a month - on - month decline of 8.1%. The spot index continued to decline with a widening decline, further weakening the support for the futures price. The opening price of 20GP for Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam voyage on October 1 was $882, a decrease of $99 from the previous week, and the 40GP opening price was $1470, a decrease of $157 from the previous week. The average quotation of the Gemini Alliance dropped to $1920/FEU, triggering a "price - cut negative cycle" [6][10][42] 2. News Review and Analysis - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first rate cut this year and a restart after a nine - month hiatus. The FOMC statement pointed out that the downside risk in employment has increased, economic growth has slowed down in the first half of this year, and inflation has risen. After the FOMC statement, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in October is expected to exceed 90% in the US interest rate futures. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive time, indicating that inflation pressure has been significantly alleviated, the eurozone economy remains stable, and the interest - rate cut cycle is approaching the end. As the pressure on the external trade environment eases, the economic outlook in the eurozone becomes more optimistic, and manufacturing activities show an improvement trend [6][20][42] 3. Chart Analysis - This week, the basis and spread of the container freight index (European line) futures contracts converged; the export container freight rate index declined; the container shipping capacity decreased in the short term; the BDI and BPI rebounded due to geopolitical factors; the charter price of Panamax ships fluctuated; and the spread between the offshore and onshore RMB against the US dollar mainly fluctuated [27][30][34] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The freight rate is still under fundamental pressure in the short term. The overcapacity on the supply side restricts the recovery of shipping prosperity. Whether the price increase announced by leading shipping companies in December can be implemented depends on the fourth - quarter cargo volume. The overall economic situation in the eurozone is not optimistic, and there is high uncertainty in tariffs. The market is in a wait - and - see state. Freight and industry profitability are under pressure, and the freight rate is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the actual follow - up increase of shipping companies' opening prices in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade - war related information [7][43]