连粕大幅下挫，油脂高位震荡

Report Title - "连粕大幅下挫 油脂高位震荡—国信期货油脂油料周报" [2] Report Date - September 19, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In the protein meal market, the CBOT soybeans and domestic continuous meal both showed a downward trend this week. The future of US soybean exports depends on the improvement of Sino-US economic and trade relations, and the domestic continuous meal is affected by factors such as whether China purchases US soybeans, Brazilian premium, and RMB exchange rate. In the oil market, the US biofuel policy is unclear, and the Malaysian palm oil is in a high - level shock. The domestic oil market is affected by supply, cost, and policy, showing an oscillating and slightly stronger trend [6][139]. Content Summary by Section Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis Market Trends - CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell this week. Domestic continuous meal oscillated lower, with the main contract breaking through the 3000 - integer mark and then rebounding at the end of the week. Domestic soybean meal spot prices also declined under pressure [6]. Export and Inspection - As of September 11, 2025, the weekly US soybean export inspection volume was 804,352 tons, higher than expected, but the cumulative export inspection volume this year is still affected by China's non - purchase [10][12]. Crop Growth - As of September 14, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 63%, the harvest rate was 5%, and the defoliation rate was 41% [24]. Weather Conditions - North American weather is complex, with the eastern half experiencing cool and dry weather, and some areas having unstable weather due to the interaction of cold fronts and monsoon circulation. South American weather information is not detailed in the report [27]. Oilseed Market - In August, the US soybean crushing volume decreased, but it was still higher than the same period last year. Analysts have different forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production, and the US soybean industry is affected by Sino - US trade conflicts [41][42]. Inventory and Profit - As of the end of this week, the domestic port's imported soybean inventory decreased, and the theoretical available days for crushing are 19 days. The spot and futures crushing margins both declined significantly [50]. Production and Inventory - As of the 37th week (September 13), the domestic soybean oil mill's soybean opening rate increased, and the soybean meal inventory increased slightly. The rapeseed opening rate also increased, but it was at a very low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased [58][67]. Consumption and Basis - The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 37th week was 190.12 tons, an increase from last week. The basis analysis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows different trends [61]. Part 2: Oil Market Analysis Market Trends - US soybean oil first rose and then fell this week. Malaysian palm oil followed US soybean oil and oscillated lower. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend, with rapeseed oil rising, soybean oil first falling and then rebounding, and palm oil following Malaysian palm oil and oscillating [74]. International Oil Information - In August, the NOPA member's soybean oil inventory decreased. In Brazil, the proportion of soybean oil in soybean crushing profit reached a record high. India's palm oil imports increased in August, while soybean oil imports decreased. Different institutions have different statistics on Malaysia's September 1 - 15 palm oil exports [77][78]. Weather Conditions - Southeast Asia has experienced large - scale seasonal rains, with some areas having heavy rainfall [85]. Price and Spread - The prices and spreads of the three major vegetable oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in the spot and futures markets show different trends. The overall inventory of domestic oils increased slightly this week, with soybean oil and palm oil inventories increasing and rapeseed oil inventory decreasing [95]. Basis and Spread Analysis - The basis analysis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil shows different trends. The oil - to - meal ratio of beans decreased, while that of rapeseed increased slightly. The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal increased slightly [115]. Inter - monthly Spread - This week, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean oil and palm oil decreased significantly, while the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil increased significantly [123]. Part 3: Market Outlook Seasonal Analysis - Seasonal analysis of the US soybean, soybean meal, domestic continuous meal, and various oil and meal indexes shows different trends [129][130][132]. Next - Week Outlook - Technically, the short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of different varieties show different trends. Fundamentally, the protein meal market is affected by Sino - US trade and domestic inventory, and the oil market is affected by international policies and domestic demand [138][139].