白糖周报：郑糖下跌，短期走弱-20250919

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Zhengzhou Sugar Declines, Weakens in the Short Term - Guoxin Futures Sugar Weekly Report" and dated September 19, 2025 [2] Group 2: Sugar Market Analysis Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou sugar futures prices declined, with a weekly drop of 1.43%. ICE sugar futures oscillated weakly, with a weekly decline of 2.28% [9] Spot Price and Basis Trends - Spot prices followed the decline of Zhengzhou sugar futures prices, but the basis showed signs of strengthening and remained at a relatively high level [59] Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan - No specific sales data were provided in the text, but relevant charts were presented [16] Sugar Imports - In July, 740,000 tons of sugar were imported, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons. Based on the ICE sugar October contract price of 16.5 cents per pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 4,539 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 5,769 yuan per ton; for Thailand, the in - quota cost was 4,580 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 5,822 yuan per ton [22] Industrial Inventory - In the 2024/25 sugar season, the industrial inventory in August was approximately 1.16 million tons, an increase of 58,000 tons compared to the same period last year [25] Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts plus forecasts was 10,629, a decrease of 1,116 from the previous week. There were 10,629 warehouse receipts and 0 valid forecasts [33] Brazil's Production Progress - In the second half of August, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.78%, and the sugar production was 26.758 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92% [37] Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 52.76%, compared to 49.09% in the same period last year [42] Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - Brazil's sugar exports in August were 3.744 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.47% [45] International Main Production Area Weather - There was little rainfall in Brazil's main production areas, which was beneficial for sugarcane crushing. India had abundant precipitation [55][56] Group 3: Market Outlook Domestic Market - Zhengzhou sugar prices declined. Spot prices followed suit. Although it was the peak season, trading volume did not improve significantly. The weak stock market dragged down the commodity market, and short - sellers increased their positions. Technically, the support level at 5,500 yuan per ton was broken, but there was cost support below this level. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term, but the downward space is limited [59] International Market - On the supply side, Brazil's production data showed that although the sugar - making ratio was slightly adjusted down, it remained above 51%. The dry weather in Brazil boosted the crushing progress, and the short - term supply pressure suppressed the market. The Asian market's high - yield expectations were still being digested, and India had high export expectations, but there was a lack of motivation at current prices. The price close to 15 cents per pound was close to the production cost of major international producers. Overall, the market was bearish, but the probability of a sharp decline was low [59] Group 4: Operation Suggestion - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading [60]