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焦煤焦炭周度报告-20250919
Zhong Hang Qi Huo·2025-09-19 11:08

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - With a bullish fundamental outlook and the re - mention of "anti - involution" remarks in the domestic macro - environment, the coking coal market is boosted. It is recommended to buy on dips. After the Fed's interest - rate cut event, the market focus returns to the supply - demand situation. Attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment intensity before the National Day and the capital - side fluctuations caused by margin increases, which may cause short - term interference to the upward slope of coking coal prices. Coke's upward driving force is limited, and its short - term price trend will follow coking coal [5][30]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Report Summary (PART 01) - As of September 16, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.39%, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points. Non - housing project capital improved, while housing project capital deteriorated [5]. - The central environmental protection inspection team provided feedback to the Shanxi provincial government on September 12, requiring strict implementation of coal production control and air pollution governance [5]. - President Xi Jinping's article in the 18th issue of Qiushi magazine on September 16 mentioned measures to address low - price competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity [5]. - Coking coal supply increased slightly, and the upstream inventory depletion rate slowed down. Independent coking enterprises replenished coking coal inventory, while steel mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases. Coke production was stable, iron - water production remained high, and the second round of coke price cuts was implemented, turning the average profit per ton of coke from positive to negative [5]. Multi - Empty Focus (PART 02) - Bullish factors: Reduced coking coal inventory pressure, high iron - water production supporting coke demand, downstream replenishment before the National Day, and limited production increase due to "anti - involution" remarks [8]. - Bearish factors: Increased Mongolian coal imports and low replenishment enthusiasm of steel mills [8]. Data Analysis (PART 03) - Coking coal supply: The operating rates of 314 sample coal - washing plants and 523 sample mines increased, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume remained high [11]. - Coking coal upstream inventory: The inventory depletion rate slowed down. Mines' inventory decreased, while coal - washing plants' and ports' inventory increased [12]. - Independent coking enterprises: They replenished coking coal inventory and reduced their own coke inventory [15]. - Steel mills: They mainly made rigid - demand purchases, with coking coal inventory decreasing and coke inventory increasing [19]. - Coke production: The overall coke production remained stable [21]. - Iron - water production: It remained at a high level, supporting coke consumption [23]. - Coke profit: After the second round of price cuts, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises turned negative, and the profit rate of steel enterprises continued to decline [25]. - Double - coking far - month basis structure: The spot and futures prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated strongly [27]. 后市研判 (PART 04) - Coking coal: Although mines resumed production after the parade, production increase was limited due to policies. With demand support and reduced inventory pressure, and the boost from "anti - involution" remarks, it is recommended to buy on dips [30]. - Coke: After the second - round price cuts, the profit of independent coking enterprises turned negative. The upward driving force is limited, and it will follow coking coal in the short term [33].