原油周报：美联储降息落地，关注地缘扰动-20250919

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices are under long - term pressure from the narrative of large supply. As the Fed's internal differences increase, market concerns about the future employment market and economy remain, and the atmosphere in the crude oil market is still weak after the interest rate cut. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and all factors that can affect Russian oil supply [8]. - The EIA data this week is bearish from a forward - looking perspective, mainly due to the poor performance of distillates (the main product in autumn and winter demand) and the fact that US refineries are gradually entering the autumn maintenance period [21]. - The three major energy institutions (IEA, OPEC, EIA) did not significantly adjust the demand side in their September reports, but IEA and EIA have significantly increased the supply forecast for three consecutive months, and EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to fall significantly in the next few months [22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Views - Last week's view: Crude oil is under long - term pressure from large supply. As supply increases and autumn maintenance deepens, the supply - demand imbalance will become more significant, and oil prices will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the Fed meeting, and short - term interference factors are mainly from the Middle East geopolitical situation and potential sanctions against Russia [8]. - This week's price trend: Oil prices rose first and then fell. The rise was mainly due to Ukraine's attack on Russian energy facilities, but the latter half of the week saw a decline due to the bearish EIA weekly report and the Fed's interest rate cut [8]. - This week's main views: Fundamentally, the downward trend of the monthly spread has slowed slightly, and cracking is relatively resilient. The US is gradually entering the autumn maintenance period, and distillate demand is poor. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but internal differences increased. Trump said there would be good news soon, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments [8]. 3.2 Weekly Key Points - Global near - month spread: The near - month spreads of Brent and WTI in the world's major markets slightly rebounded this week, but the long - term trend is still downward, indicating a slowdown in spot supply and demand [12]. - Cracking trend: Global refined oil spot prices are still supported. Relatively speaking, the cracking trend of US spot is slightly weaker, while that of Northwest Europe and Singapore is stronger. Although terminal demand is okay, the supply increase is greater, resulting in a weaker near - end spread [14][15]. - Fundamental quantitative indicators: The current comprehensive indicator of crude oil fundamentals is neutral, and the latest signal was negative from September 10th to 11th. The current forward - looking indicator of crude oil fundamentals is also neutral, and the latest signal was positive only on September 16th [18]. - US autumn maintenance and distillate performance: As of September 12th, the US refinery operating rate decreased by 1.6% to 93.3% month - on - month, indicating the start of the traditional autumn maintenance. Distillate demand decreased instead of increasing during the traditional autumn harvest season, and inventory increased during the period of declining refinery operating rate, which is contrary to the seasonal trend [21]. - Summary of September report views of major energy institutions: The three institutions did not significantly adjust the demand side, but IEA and EIA increased the supply forecast. EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to fall significantly in the next few months [22]. - Fed's September meeting: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP to 4% - 4.25% in September, in line with market expectations. The dot - plot in September showed that the doves gradually dominated. There are obvious contradictions in this meeting, highlighting internal differences within the Fed [23][26]. - Russia - Ukraine situation: The Russia - Ukraine peace talks have stagnated, but there may be a turning point. Trump said a cease - fire agreement may be near. Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian energy facilities led to a short - term rise in oil prices [27]. - North American hurricane forecast: According to NOAA, the probability of this year's hurricane activity exceeding the normal level is 60%, but it is relatively calm compared to last year. Currently, there are no hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, and no potential cyclones are expected to form in the key areas of the Gulf of Mexico in the next 7 days [29]. 3.3 Price, Spread, Cracking - Crude oil futures and spot trends: Various charts show the trends of crude oil futures and spot prices, including different types of crude oil and related indicators such as net long positions in futures and options [32][34][37]. - Crude oil futures structure and spreads: Charts display the structure of crude oil futures (such as the prices of different contract months) and various spreads (monthly spreads, cross - market futures spreads, cross - market spot spreads, etc.) [40][43][46]. - Saudi OSP: Saudi Arabia adjusted its official selling prices (OSP) for different regions and different grades of crude oil in October compared to September [56]. - Refined product prices and cracking: Charts show the prices and cracking spreads of refined product futures and spot in different regions (US, Europe, Asia, etc.) [61][63][66]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - Global crude oil supply: It includes the supply of OPEC, non - OPEC, and the total global supply. Data shows the historical and predicted values of these supplies [82]. - Non - OPEC and OPEC supply details: Details of non - OPEC supply from countries like the US, the former Soviet Union, China, and Brazil, as well as OPEC supply (including production, capacity, and supply from major countries and exempt countries) are presented [85][88][91]. - Global rig count: Information on the number of rigs in the US, Canada, and globally, as well as the number of US oil rigs and related production indicators [97][99]. - Refinery unit shutdown volume: Data on the shutdown volume of CDU and FCC units globally, in the US, Northwest Europe, and Asia [102][104]. - Global crude oil demand: It includes the demand of OECD and non - OECD regions and the total global demand, with historical and predicted values [106]. - Inventory data: Inventory data for the US, OECD, and other regions (such as Europe, Japan, ARA, Singapore, and China) are provided [114][117][119]. - EIA balance sheet: The EIA balance sheet shows the supply, consumption, balance, and balance changes of global crude oil from 2025 to 2026 [134]. 3.5 EIA Weekly Report and Others - EIA weekly report main data: It includes data on crude oil production, commercial crude oil inventory, refinery operating rate, and total crude oil chain inventory [149]. - Supply data: Data on the production of crude oil, gasoline, distillates, jet fuel, residual fuel oil, propane - propylene, and their yields are presented [152][155].