Dongguan Securities·2025-09-19 11:06Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1][48]. Core Viewpoints - The newly released "New Energy Storage Scale Construction Special Action Plan (2025-2027)" aims for a national new energy storage installed capacity of over 180GW by 2027, driving direct investment of approximately 250 billion yuan, with lithium battery storage as the main technology route [3][44]. - The lithium battery index has shown significant growth, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 14.92 percentage points over the past two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 46.60% [2][11]. - The overall demand for lithium batteries is rapidly increasing, with a notable recovery in net profits for the lithium battery industry chain, which grew by 30% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, marking a turning point after two years of decline [3][44]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of September 18, 2025, the lithium battery index has increased by 17.97% in the last two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 14.92 percentage points [2][11]. - The lithium battery index has risen by 19.54% this month and 46.60% year-to-date [2][11]. Price Changes in the Lithium Battery Industry Chain - As of September 18, 2025, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 73,100 yuan/ton, down 2.14% over the past two weeks [3][24]. - The price of lithium hydroxide (LiOH 56.5%) is 71,600 yuan/ton, down 0.42% [3][24]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate remains stable at 34,300 yuan/ton, while NCM523, NCM622, and NCM811 have seen slight declines [3][26]. Industry News - The demand for new energy vehicles is expected to peak in September, with retail sales projected at around 1.25 million units, leading to a penetration rate of 58.1%, a historical high [3][39]. - Global battery production in August 2025 reached 198.42 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 50.31% [3][39]. - The solid-state battery industry is progressing towards commercialization, with companies like Panasonic and SK On making significant advancements in solid-state battery technology [3][40][42]. Company Announcements - Key companies to watch include CATL, which reported a revenue of 178.886 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.27% [3][45]. - Other notable companies include Yiwei Lithium Energy, which has launched a solid-state battery production base, and Enjie, which is focusing on solid-state battery materials [3][45].