双焦：煤矿产量受限，底部有支撑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal spot market sentiment has improved recently, with prices generally rising and the auction non - winning rate decreasing. Coke sentiment has also improved, with price increase expectations. Future coal mine over - production inspections may support coking coal prices, and domestic coking coal production will be restricted, but imported coal can provide some supplement. The upside of prices depends on demand, and currently, steel demand restricts the upside of raw material prices [4]. - For trading strategies, in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust. In the medium term, due to policy disturbances on the supply side, it is recommended to buy on dips, but be cautious about the upside. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - term oscillation adjustment. In the medium term, with policy disturbances on the supply side, maintain the idea of buying on dips, but be cautious about the upside [6]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]. - Options: Wait and see [6]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis Coking Coal - Supply: Future coal mine over - production inspections may support coking coal prices. Domestic coking coal production will be restricted by anti - involution and over - production inspections, and it is difficult to return to the high point of the first half of the year and will be lower than the same period last year. However, imported coal can provide some supplement [4]. - Demand: Steel demand has resilience but no obvious bright spots, and the demand and profit situation of steel restrict the upside of coking coal prices [4]. Coke - Supply: Coke production has remained basically stable this week. Although recent profits have declined and some coking enterprises are in the red, they have not reached the point of active production cuts [8][9]. - Demand: Pig iron production has rebounded slightly this week, and it is expected to remain high in the near future. Downstream steel mills will continue to replenish coke stocks before the National Day holiday, and there are also some traders entering the market to buy, so the overall demand for coke has resilience [9]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Coking Coal - Spot Price: The coking coal market sentiment has improved this week, with the auction non - winning rate significantly decreasing, downstream procurement enthusiasm increasing, and most coal types rising by 30 - 80 yuan/ton. It is expected that the coking coal spot price will continue to be strong next week [8]. - Domestic Supply: The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines has continued to rise slightly this week, and it is expected to remain basically unchanged next week [8]. - Imported Mongolian Coal: The number of customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port has continued to rise this week, and it is expected to remain at a high level next week [8]. - Demand: Coke production has remained basically stable this week [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coking coal has increased this week, with downstream coking enterprises replenishing stocks in advance, mine inventories decreasing, port inventories increasing, and the inventory pressure at the port not being large [8]. Coke - Spot Price: The second - round price cut of coke has been implemented this week. With the rise of coking coal prices, the cost support for coke is obvious, and the market sentiment has also improved. It is expected that leading coking enterprises in mainstream areas will propose a price increase next week, and the probability of implementation is relatively high [9]. - Supply: Coke production has remained basically stable this week [9]. - Demand: Pig iron production has rebounded slightly this week, and it is expected to remain high in the near future. Downstream steel mills will continue to replenish coke stocks before the National Day holiday, and there are also some traders entering the market to buy, so the overall demand for coke has resilience [9]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coke has increased this week, and the overall supply and demand of coke are relatively balanced [9]. - Profit: According to Steel Union data, the average national profit per ton of coke is - 17 yuan/ton, with different profitability in different regions [9].