Report Title - North China Corn to Be Listed Soon, Futures Market Trading at Bottom Range [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The USDA's September report on US corn shows a decrease in yield but an increase in acreage, leading to a record - high production. However, the yield may be further adjusted downward later. The US corn market is expected to trade in a narrow range in the short - term, with strong support at 400 cents per bushel for the December contract. Corn auctions are ongoing, and new corn from North China is expected to be listed in large quantities at the end of September, with prices likely to fall to around 2,200 yuan per ton in Shandong. The spot price of corn is expected to continue to decline, while the futures price has limited downside. The basis is expected to be significantly repaired. [4][5] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Corn Situation: The US corn is in a bumper harvest, but the yield may be further reduced. The December contract has strong support at 400 cents per bushel and trades in a narrow range in the short - term. Corn auctions continue, and new North China corn will be listed at the end of September. The spot price of corn is expected to decline, while the futures price has limited downside. The basis will be significantly repaired. [4][5] - Trading Strategies - Single - side: Consider buying the December contract of US corn around 400 cents per bushel. Start building long positions for the January corn contract at or below 2,150 yuan per ton. [5] - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. [5] - Options: Consider a cumulative purchase strategy after a price decline. [5] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - International Market - Supply and Demand Changes: The September report shows a decrease in US corn yield from 188.8 bushels per acre last month to 186.7 bushels per acre, but an increase in acreage to 98.7 million acres. The US corn market rebounds, and the December contract rebounds above 420 cents per bushel. The import tariffs for US corn and sorghum are 26% and 23% respectively, and the domestic import profit has increased. [8] - Export and Inventory: As of September 11, the weekly export inspection of US corn is 151 tons, with a cumulative export of 2.16 million tons. The export to China is 0 tons. In August, the import of corn is 40,000 tons, and from January to August, it is 880,000 tons, compared with 12.56 million tons in the same period last year. [9] - Non - commercial Net Short Position and Ethanol Production: As of September 9, the non - commercial net short position of US corn is 54,000 lots, showing a decrease. The US ethanol production increases. The US corn December contract rebounds from the bottom, and it is expected that the yield may be further reduced, with strong support at 400 cents per bushel. [14] - Domestic Market - Deep - processing and Feed: Feed enterprises' corn inventory decreases, with the average inventory of 47 large - scale feed mills at 26.16 days as of September 18, a decrease of 0.75 days from the previous week and a 10.23% decline compared to the same period last year. The consumption of corn by 149 major deep - processing enterprises from September 11 - 17 is 1.1563 million tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons from the previous week. The inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises is 2.34 million tons as of September 17, a decrease of 5.91% from the previous week. [18][19] - Port Inventory: The corn inventory at northern ports decreases, while the grain inventory at southern ports increases. On September 12, the corn inventory at the four northern ports is 729,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 216,000 tons. The shipping volume at the four ports is 321,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory is 601,000 tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign - trade inventory is 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the imported sorghum is 390,000 tons, a decrease of 58,000 tons from the previous week; the imported barley is 820,000 tons, an increase of 139,000 tons from the previous week, and the total grain inventory is 1.811 million tons, an increase of 26,000 tons. [22] - Starch Market: The开机率 of the starch industry increases. The production of corn starch from September 11 - 17 is 249,000 tons, an increase of 5,200 tons from the previous week, and the开机率 is 48.15%, an increase of 1.01% from the previous week. The spot price of starch decreases, and the profit loss in Shandong and Heilongjiang expands. The starch inventory decreases, with the inventory at 1.2 million tons as of September 17, a decrease of 26,000 tons from the previous week, a 2.12% decline, an 8.95% decline from the beginning of the month, and a 37.5% increase compared to the same period last year. [25] - Substitute Products: The wheat price is basically stable, with the arrival price in North China at around 2,440 yuan per ton. The price difference between wheat and corn expands, the price of North China corn declines, while the price of Northeast corn is relatively strong, and the price difference between North China and Northeast corn narrows. [33] - Livestock and Poultry Market - Pigs: From September 11 - 17, the self - breeding and self - raising profit is - 10 yuan per head, a decrease of 31 yuan per head from the previous week, and the profit from purchasing piglets is - 222 yuan per head, a decrease of 28 yuan per head from the previous week. [37] - Poultry: From September 11 - 17, the breeding profit of white - feather broilers is - 1.11 yuan per bird, compared with 0.17 yuan per bird last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost is 3.52 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit is 0.17 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.11 yuan per catty last week. [43] - Deep - processing Downstream Market - Starch Sugar: The开机率 of F55 high - fructose corn syrup is 51.23% this week, a decrease of 5.55% from the previous week, and the开机率 of maltose syrup is 44.72%, a decrease of 2.09% from the previous week. [46] - Paper Mills: The开机率 of corrugated paper is 66.37% this week, an increase of 0.55% from the previous week, and the开机率 of boxboard paper is 69.57%, an increase of 0.43% from the previous week. [46] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Corn and Substitute Prices: Price trends of corn, wheat, sorghum, and their price differences are presented, but specific data analysis is not provided in the text. [47][49][53] - Basis and Spread - Price differences such as the basis of corn 01 contract, 1 - 5 spread of corn, 1 - 5 spread of corn starch, and the spread between corn starch and corn contracts are shown, but specific data analysis is not provided in the text. [56]
华北玉米即将上市，盘面底部震荡
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-09-19 10:59